Even though we had a let-down Friday, this is undoubtedly my sharpest week yet in MLB– we’ve gone 12-4 over the last 9 days and 6/9 of those days have been undefeated. Let’s keep this train chugging– here are 2 more free plays for your Saturday, enjoy!
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Reds (-139), 2 units: Luis Castillo (6-11, 4.53 ERA, 3.98 xERA over 131 innings) has been the poster boy of unpredictable outcomes this year. Once thought of as the Reds’ most prized pitcher, full of potential and ace skill, Castillo’s performances have left us both in awe in how dominant he can be and in disbelief in how awful his command can sink. In his last outing, Castillo got obliterated at Cleveland, permitting 7 hits and 8 runs in just over 3 innings on the mound. It was a return of the Castillo we saw back in April and May, where he put up god-awful 6.29 and 8.04 ERAs in the first 2 months of the season. But the summer was different. In 68.4 innings during June and July, the 28 year old had a 1.93 ERA and never allowed a team to score more than 3 points. He only allowed 1 run or less in 7 out of those 11 starts. I think we’ll see the more stable and more dynamic version of Castillo this afternoon. This is a big game for both of these teams and the Phillies have a much weaker starting pitcher in Matt Moore (6.79 ERA, 1.63 WHIP over 50.1 innings). Moore struggles in myriad ways but none more than his homerun allowance (2.15/9 innings). The Reds are top 5 in almost every major offensive category over the last 2 weeks, and no team has a better slugging percentage (.525) over that span. They’re also 2nd only to the White Sox with 27 homers the past 14 days. This is not a good setup for Moore and while Castillo just had one of his worst performances of the year, the Phillies’ bats have gone ice cold over their last 5 games, averaging only 1.6 runs per contest. The road-warrior Reds have won 7 of their last 10 games and need to keep winning to stay in NL Central contention. After starting off August on fire, the Phillies have now dropped 3 of their last 5. Cincinnati is 7-0 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game and 23-8 in their last 31 games as a favorite. Take the Reds.
Braves -1.5 (-110), 2 units: The Braves smell blood. Unless Juan Soto holds the entire team on his shoulders and whacks a few homeruns, the Nationals have been completely abysmal the last 2 weeks. Losers of 10 of their last 11 games (and over half of those by margin), the aimless Nationals continue to let their season crumble while the top 3 teams in the NL East are still competing in a tight race for 1st place. And Atlanta is starting to hum. Coming into Saturday the Braves have now won 9 of their last 12 contests and they’re tied with the Phillies for the top spot in their division. Ergo, there’s little reason to believe that the motivation won’t be there. Today they’ll send Max Fried (3.91 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 103.2 innings) to the mound, who has yet to maintain consistency this year, but I think his profile is still solid enough to get behind. Fried boasts solid numbers across the board, including a 75% LOB rate, 4.03 xERA, 3.75 xFIP, and only 0.95 HR/9 innings. Against the always-capable Juan Soto and other power-hitters of the Nationals, that last statistic is rather important. Fried has mixed results against Washington this season but it’s reasonable to say that this is a far less intimidating lineup he’ll be opposing today. I like Fried to have a solid showing; I can’t say the same for Patrick Corbin (5.83 ERA, 1.42 WHIP over 122 innings). In 11.1 innings against Atlanta this season, Corbin has surrendered 11 hits and 9 runs. His alarming HR allowance (1.99/9 innings), dropping LOB rate (68%), and 5.80 xERA should give Washington backers even more caution. There’s always a chance that the Nationals could wake up and decide to make this a ball-game but there are few indications that it will realistically happen against this determined and streaking Braves unit. Atlanta is 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 7-1 in their last 8 games against a left handed pitcher. Take the Braves by margin.
