Hello fine people of TheOddsBreakers! Little announcement here– for the duration of the MLB season, I will no longer be writing long, nuanced articles with my free baseball plays. As I turn my focus to the NFL and college football, I will still put out picks here but the write-ups will be as succinct as possible so I can free up more time for other sports. As many of you probably already know, the fall is the busiest time for many handicappers. Baseball is coming to an end, basketball is around the corner and all of us are fully entrenched in football. Not to mention there’s always UFC and the NHL starts in October, too. If you want to succeed in sports handicapping, you need to prioritize time for your preparation and research or things can get really overwhelming. This is my attempt at minimizing my workload in MLB to grant myself extra time for football and basketball prep. All that said, here are my free plays to start your week and I hope you all know how grateful I am for all your readership and support!
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Cubs/Reds under 9 (-105), 1.5 units: Wade Miley has been consistent for most of this season, holding his ERA under 3.00 in 3 out of the 5 months of play. Teams are usually good for 2-3 runs against the aging Miley, but his veteran command rarely let’s it go passed that mark. Against the Cubs anemic offense, I think it’s fair to say Miley can’t be too intimidated heading to the mound today. Pitching for Chicago is young first year starter Justin Steele. Steele’s 2.99 xERA and mostly solid numbers is at least something relevant for the Cubs since they have little else to play for this year. Even if Cincinnati’s lineup shows up big again Monday, the Cubs may not score at all. The under is 18-7-2 in Cubs last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning record. I’ll take that play in what feels like a sleepy game at Great American Ballpark.
Giants -1.5 (-110), 2 units and Mets/Giants over 8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Two separate bets. This is a big time mismatch on the mound with Kevin Gausman serving for the Giants and Rich Hill, who’s been steadily pedestrian this year, getting the start for New York. The Mets are slumping right now, having lost their last 3 games (all at home) in an abysmal series showing against the Dodgers. They were outscored badly by last year’s champs, surrendering 22 points in 3 games while only mustering 10 of their own. I’m thinking it’s times like this where deGrom’s absence is particularly glaring. Now the ultra-confident Giants get to host the Mets at home in game 1 of a three-game series. The Giants are 40-14 in their last 54 games as a home favorite– take San Francisco by margin and the over as a hedge, just in case the Mets’ bats decide to show up (and we’re pretty sure the home team can expose Rich Hill throughout this contest).
