We march on with shorter (but just as sweet) MLB articles! 2-1 last night, 17-8 over the last 12 days in these free baseball picks. Onto Tuesday!
I will have Premium Picks all week in NFL, MLB, and UFC.
Click the hyperlink to sign up for my favorite plays every day!
Blue Jays -1.5 (-130), 1.3 units: The Blue Jays travel to DC Tuesday to face the fledgling Nationals, who have now lost 12 of their last 13 games. I’ve been a big fan of Alek Manoah since he made his debut and my take on the 6’6″ 23 year old has only grown more favorable. Manoah’s LOB rate remains high, his ERA and FIP marks remain low, and he’s showed exceptional command and consistency for such a young thrower. Erick Fedde isn’t as bad as some of his more superficial numbers suggest, but a plummeting LOB rate (67.4%) and inconsistent command have me ready and willing to fade the Nationals’ veteran. The former version of Washington would have gone toe to toe with Toronto’s electric offense tonight but watching their body language and lack of energy lately, I don’t like their chances, especially with Manoah on the mound. The Jays are 36-15 (70%) in their last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Toronto.
Braves (-135), 2 units: This is an interesting pitcher’s dual between Atlanta and Miami tonight. Huascar Ynoa (4.54 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 44.2 innings) boasted solid numbers in his tenure earlier this year, as his 3.18 xFIP indicates. Two games really blew up his ERA, one against Chicago where he allowed 6 runs and 3 homers (that just screams absurdity) and his last start against the Brewers back in May, where he permitted 5 runs in 4 innings. Otherwise Ynoa only allowed more than 1 run (a 2 run allowance against Arizona on April 23) in just one other showing on the mound. Over those other 35 exceptional innings (82% of his total pitching in 2021), Ynoa allowed only 5 total runs (averages to 1 run per 7 IP). The impassioned young gun is reportedly 100% and ready to roll today, and I really like Ynoa and the Braves in this spot. Although Miami has put up more points lately, Atlanta’s lineup has more power and has been more consistent, ranking in the top 7 in slugging percentage and WOBA and top 3 in homeruns and points over the last 2 weeks. Sandy Alcantara is one of the better starters in baseball but this is a play on the better offense and a returning, motivated Ynoa to get a vengeful win. The Braves are 59-28 in their last 87 games as a road favorite– take the away team to steal one at LoanDepot Park.
