MLB Picks and Predictions – August 19, 2021

August 19, 2021

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We continue to march on over these past 2 weeks with more wins than losses, going 2-1 last night and 20-10 over the last 14 days. Onto that thirrrsty Thursday!

Athletics/White Sox under 9 (-110), 1.5 units: The Athletics still stand 2 games behind the Astros in the AL West and they need some major help on the mound if they’re going to have a shot at surpassing their rival. This is a play on Cole Irvin for sure but it’s even more of a play against the struggling Oakland bats. In their last 4 games, Oakland has only scored a combined 6 points. Is positive regression imminent? Probably. But I also think Dylan Cease brings enough experience and command to give the A’s offense more issues today. Cease has above-average numbers overall, including a HR allowance right around that 1 HR/9 innings mark (1.01) and xERA/xFIP marks below 4.00. Still developing as an elite thrower, Cease rarely allows more than 3 runs in a contest and Cole Irvin is due for a better game after a lackluster showing against the Rangers in his last start. The under is 6-1-1 in Athletics last 8 vs. American League Central– I’ll take it.

Brewers -1.5 (120), 1.2 units: This is a yet another fade of the very fade-able Jon Lester and at this point in the season, “IYKYK” and if you don’t know, I don’t know what to tell you. Lester vs. Woodruff is like an aged Hulk Hogan taking on the Rock 19 years ago at WrestleMania. It ain’t fair. Except, Lester never had the prowess of the legendary Hulkster and of course this an actual sport, not a show. Still, we love to fade Lester. After a late-game comeback yesterday, I expect Milwaukee’s redemptive energy to carry over into today’s matchup. St. Louis is good when they can control the game with their superb defense and schematic pitching, but that won’t be on their side today. The Brewers have won 5 of their 8 games against the Cardinals this year and every one of them have been by margin. I expect another one tonight. Take Milwaukee’s run-line.