We gave away 3 FREE premium picks yesterday on Twitter and we hit every pick, making us 3-0 on the day and 25-13 over the last 19 days betting MLB. That’ll do! Onto Tuesday!
Rays/Phillies under 9 (-110), 1.5 units: Two eager young pitchers in Drew Rasmussen (3.30 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.43 xFIP, 0.77 HR/9 IP over 47 innings) and Ranger Suarez (1.47 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.80 xERA, 84.2% LOB rate, 0.49 HR/9 IP over 55 innings) look to put on another show in Philadelphia as these two contenders square off in a big series at Citizens Bank Park. These are two capable offenses have been on different trajectories recently; the Phillies are absolutely ice cold over the last 2 weeks, ranking dead last in slugging % and near dead last in homeruns and wOBA. The Rays’ lineup has been sensational, ranking in the top 3 in most major offensive categories during the same span. Philadelphia is in semi-panic mode after their surge in early August came to a screeching halt and they need to keep winning to stay in NL East contention. I’m going to trust these two arms in what should be a highly competitive contest. A ton of trends favor the over but this isn’t the same Philly team we saw weeks ago. The under is 11-2-2 in Phillies last 15 overall– take it.
Lean, Orioles in the first 5 innings (+110): The Orioles are getting close to making history. Losers of now 18 straight, the Orioles have been outscored by 102 runs (!!!) during their skid and one more loss would tie them for the most losses in a row since the Royals back in 2005. Spenser Watkins has showed promise in his early career and the Angels are close to officially being out of playoff contention. I think Baltimore can hang and the lines suggest that they’ll pull out the victory today.
Reds/Brewers over 7.5 (-115), 1.5 units: The antithesis of the Rays/Phillies contest, two of the best offenses in MLB square off with their aces on the mound and I’m favoring the over. In a sport where the pitcher’s control the lines and handicapping, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Mahle go head to head in a big matchup in the NL Central. Milwaukee is the best offense in baseball over the last two weeks and I have the data to prove it. Here are their rankings the last 14 days: 1st in wOBA, 1st in slugging %, 1st in batting average, 4th in homeruns, 2nd in runs, 3rd in RBIs. For all we’ve contemplated and debated about the Brewers’ lineup, they’ve been exceptionally consistent this year. The Reds’ offense isn’t much further away, ranking top 10 most of the same categories over the last 2 weeks. I trust and appreciate the command of the two chosen throwers today, but I trust the over on a low total for 1.5 humble units.
