Ladies and gentlemen, we have to say it: we’re on a HEATER! I’m 8-0 the last 3 days and 30-13 (70%) over the last 3 weeks betting MLB. I appreciate all the support and please spread the word for FarleyBets! Shall we make it 10-0?!? Let’s try!
Angels/Orioles over 11 (-110), 2 units: If you can’t beat em, join em! Sometimes you have to buck your desire to fade the trends and just go with what makes sense. The Angels seemed to be enjoying their stay in Baltimore before the incomparable (and I mean that sarcastically) Orioles made a comeback last night and ended their horrid losing streak at 18 games. Today it’ll be another hot and humid day in Baltimore (trust me I know, I live here), with even more moisture creeping up in the mid-afternoon. That should create a perfect hitting scenario and it’s even more ideal against the pitchers at Camden Yards today. James Barria (5.87 ERA, 1.47 WHIP over 30.2 innings) hasn’t exactly been dominant in his short 2021 stint, and Keegan Akin (7.92 ERA, 1.81 WHIP over 63.2 innings) has abysmal, indefensible numbers. The Orioles have plenty to work on but it’s their rotation that needs the real evolution. The O’s can hit, the A’s can hit, they’ve collectively scored 38 runs in 2 games and it’s an idyllic hot-bed in Charm City today. The over is 35-14-4 in Orioles last 53 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game– take it.
Reds (+101), 1.5 units: I’m taking a shot on Cincinnati today. Sonny Gray (STL, RHP, 5-6) and Brett Anderson (MIL, LHP, 4-7) have shockingly similar numbers at face value. Today’s starters both display a 4.15 ERA and WHIPs of 1.32/1.31, respectively. But there are some major differences. Gray has xERA (3.44) and xFIP (3.48) marks that suggest he’s overdue for positive regression and that sheer bad luck has plagued the 31 year old. He also owns a solid 77% LOB rate and has considerably more strikeouts (111, compared to Anderson’s 51) than his foe. Cincinnati cannot afford to keep dropping games to Milwaukee, who now leads the NL Central by a solid 9.5 games after earning two more victories in this series. The Brewers own a 10-8 series lead this season. The Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and their pitcher and offense are way overdue for positive regression– I’ll take the Reds for plus money.
Sneaky Line Alert! The Giants are -125 as a favorite: Just something to point out here. The San Francisco Giants have the best record in MLB, they’ve won their last 4 games, they’ve beaten the Mets in 2 straight contests, they’re 4-1 against New York this year, and they have the superior pitcher today in the consistent arm of Alex Wood (Carrasco has looked BAD). Yet here we are and they’re only a -125 road favorite against the Mets today. Buyer beware– this line is daring us to take the Giants (much like the Red Sox line yesterday), and something or someone is implying that the Mets will pull off a surprise win. Consider a bet on the Mets or avoid this contest altogether.
