Happy Friday! Here are 3 free picks for today’s big MLB slate!
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White Sox/Cubs under 9 (-110), 2 units: The battle of the Windy City is on Friday as the White Sox and Cubs begin their first series of the season. I think it’ll be a pitcher’s dual. The White Sox offense has been very pedestrian lately, ranking at the bottom of MLB in every conceivable offensive category over the last 2 weeks (wOBA, batting average, slugging percentage, runs, etc.). The Cubs are the same as always– mid-tier, inconsistent, and often underwhelming behind their bats. Both teams’ aces will take the mound in what should be a slow-paced contest. Lance Lynn (2.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP over 108.2 innings) has been dominant this season, as the numbers indicate, and I like him even more coming off an unusually weak performance against Cleveland in his last start. Before that last showing, Lynn had a streak of 5 straight games where he permitted only 1 run or less. I expect more of that Lynn in the early game Friday. The Cubs were sellers at the trade deadline but one of their only stable pieces will be sent out today in Kyle Hendricks (3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP over 128.2 innings). After a bad April, Hendricks has held onto a 3.00 ERA or less in 3 straight months. Since the White Sox bats have been ice cold and Hendricks has been so consistent, I don’t see him having much issue today either. The under is 7-1-1 in the White Sox last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. I’m on the under.
Orioles first 5 (+110), 1.5 units: I love to play on the Orioles in good spots at home and this feels like another opportunity to do so. John Means (2.84 ERA, 0.87 WHIP over 88.2 innings) looked more like himself in his last start. Baltimore’s favorite pitcher has needed time to settle in after coming back from a long-term IL layoff but he showed great command at Detroit a week ago, allowing only 4 hits and 1 earned run over 6 innings. Following an embarrassing showing in the Bronx in 2 out of 3 games this week, which is business as usual for the O’s, this is a good spot for some redemption after a needed day off. Tampa will start Ryan Yarbrough (4.58 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 114 innings) Friday. In 16 starts, Yarbrough has held his opponent’s bats to 1 run or less only 7 times, a mark of 43.7%. He’s consistent in that he has maintained an ERA around that 4.80 mark in every month this season. That’s not great. The Rays have been slugging well over the last 2 weeks but their batting average and on-base-percentage is in the bottom half of the league. If Means can contain Tampa’s power bats, there’s little reason to not believe that they won’t be ahead at the halfway mark. I’m betting he can, and that they will.
Brewers (-145), 2 units: This is a much better spot for Milwaukee. The Giants survived (and cashed us a few bets) last night after a remarkable 9th inning comeback, avenging a 4-0 deficit against the lowly Diamondbacks. Their bats were ICE cold before those final innings. Now San Francisco has to turn around the next day and hit the road to face the surging Brewers; that ain’t ideal. Milwaukee has won 9 of their last 12 games and their offense is performing really well over the last 2 weeks, ranked in the top 10 in nearly every category (runs, RBIs, wOBA, batting average, etc.). They’re also starting their ace in Corbin Burnes (6-4, 2.46 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 73 innings) tonight. This is another situation where a great pitcher should experience positive regression. Burnes allowed a very rare 5 runs to the Braves in his last start, which is only the second time he’s allowed that many points all season. Before that disappointing performance, Burnes permitted 1 run or less in 5 straight starts. Burnes has a sensational 1.89 xERA and 1.49 FIP and I think he could put on a show tonight. Logan Webb (3.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 73 innings) is a serviceable and frequently exceptional pitcher that adds to a fantastic San Francisco rotation. Still, his marks are substantially lower than Burnes and the Brewers’ bats have showed no sign of slowing down. The Brew-crew had a day off before this contest, they’re at home, and they’re 24-6 in their last 30 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Take Milwaukee.
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