We went 2-1 on Friday and in baseball, a winning day is worth celebrating in these parts. Onto Saturday, onto more wins!
Across all sports, I have 9 Premium Picks Saturday.
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Astros -1.5 (-105), 1.5 units: Something has to give for Houston here. The Astros have lost 5 of their last 6 games and now they’ve opened the door for the Athletics to creep closer to their 1st placed spot in the AL West. Despite their transgressions and even without Bregman, they’ve maintained a top 10 offense over the last 2 weeks. Michael Pineda (3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 76.1 innings) will get the nod for the Twins, who have now won 2 in a row at Minute Maid Park (that sounds as absurd as it is), and Pineda has been pretty stellar lately. Allowing only 3 runs or less in his last 3 games, Pineda still owns a profile I don’t love (he allows too many home-runs, his LOB rate isn’t exceptional and his xERA/FIP marks speak to inevitable negative regression). This is a prime spot for him to get exposed today against an angry Houston lineup, one that almost came back last night and will look to carry that energy into today. Luis Garcia (3.49 ERA, 1.13 WHIP over 100.2 innings), on the other hand, is supremely due for positive regression. Garcia has had 2 bad road starts in a row but he thrives at home. In 11 previous spots at Minute Maid, Garcia has allowed more than 1 run on only 2 occasions. The Astros are 70-28 in their last 98 home games vs. a team with a losing record. In the first 3 games against Minnesota this year, Houston beat them by margins of 2, 3, and 11 points. Expect a motivated, frustrated, and considerably better Astros team to win by margin today.
Mets/Phillies No Run in 1st Inning (+115), 1.5 units: Two power-hitting teams give us a plus money opportunity Saturday as the Mets visit Philadelphia in game 2 of their latest series. A low-scoring affair between two NL East rivals (the Phillies are now 1/2 game ahead of New York for the top spot) behind the able arms of Kyle Gibson and Marcus Stroman set the stage for this contentious 3-game matchup. Ranger Suarez (PHI, 5-3, 1.04 ERA, 0.83 WHIP over 43.1 innings) and Tylor Megill (NYM, 1-1, 2.68 ERA, 1.12 WHIP over 40.1 innings) will take the mounds for their respective units today and we see the total rising (9.5) because of it. Not so fast, my friends. These bucks are young but they’re also full of talent. Suarez hasn’t been given a long-leash just yet but when he’s on the mound, he commands it. In his 28 times on the dirt throughout this season, most of which were for 2 innings or less, Suarez has allowed more than 1 run only once. In 18 of those showings, he permitted a big fat goose egg (that’s 0 points for the layperson out there). We’re unsure if he can hold onto the same numbers if he started serving for longer stints but we don’t need him to since we’re only betting on the 1st inning. Megill has started in 8 contests and his numbers are equally impressive. He got obliterated in his last game against Miami but July showcased just how impressive the 6’7″ youngin’ can be, flexing a 1.04 ERA and never allowing more than 1 run in over 26 innings on the dirt. This is a highly competitive series between two good teams and while these fresh pitchers will be nervous, the bats will feel that pressure, too. I expect a strong start from each thrower as the battle trudges on– give me the NRFI for a nice pay-day.
Reds -1.5 (-105), 2 units: The Reds are SPANKING the Pirates at home and why should I believe today will be any different? Milwaukee keeps on winning (and they embarrassed/swept the Reds after the All-Star break) but Cincinnati won’t go away. The Reds have won 8 of their last 10 games and, despite how consistent the Brewers have been, they still have an outside shot at the NL Central title at 7 games back from 1st place. The Pirates aren’t doing themselves any favors by starting Mitch Keller (7.05 ERA, 1.78 WHIP over 52.1 innings) but they really don’t have much of a choice. Pittsburgh’s season has been over for awhile now and it’s showing. They’re 18-39 on the road and they’ve only won 7 out of 20 games after the break (35%). Of those 13 losses, 12 were by margins of 2 runs or more. YIKES. The Reds will start Vladimir Gutierrez (4.39 ERA, 1.36 WHIP over 67.2 innings) Saturday. Gutierrez gives you consistently “good not great” starts but he’s had a few gems recently, holding power-hitting offenses like the Mets and Brewers to only 1 run each over 13 innings. Honestly, Cincinnati could start my 66 year old father and I’d probably still play on their side today. The Reds are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the home team to blow out the Pirates 3 times in a row.
Across all sports, I have 9 Premium Picks Saturday.
Click the hyperlink to sign up for my favorite plays every day!
