After a nice little break from writing and betting on MLB, I’m more than happy to be back on the proverbial mound as we partake in the second half of the season. Here are my best bets and predictions for your Friday lineup!
Marlins (Game 1, -115), 1.5 units: We’re back to the grind of summer baseball! It’s just as hot in Philly today as it is here in Baltimore and you got to think the bats will be swingin’ wild at Citizens Bank Park. Sandy Alcantara (3.09 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 116.2 innings) has a profile we like to get behind and next to Pablo Lopez, he’s easily the Marlins’ most consistent pitcher. In over 100 innings this year, he still has impressive homerun tallies (0.77/9 innings) and LOB rates (73%). It’ll be needed today. Two of his last three starts have been unsettling, allowing 5 runs in separate contests against the Dodgers and Nationals before the break. Maybe a short break from the burdens of being an ace is what he needs, and I damn sure trust him more than Matt Moore (5.40 ERA, 1.64 WHIP over 31.2 innings). Moore owns a 6.28 xERA and 5.93 xFIP, both on the decline, and that gives us plenty to be concerned about. In the last 14 innings this year against the Phillies, Alcantara has only given up 2 runs. I’m on the Marlins in the early game for 2 units.
Pirates First 5 +0.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Pirates and their starter haven’t had their best half-seasons but they certainly play better among their Steel City fans. While Pittsburgh pitcher Chad Kuhl owns a 4.73 ERA on the year, he has a healthy 2.91 ERA at PNC Park. And while his walk rate is a little high (4.91 BB/9 innings), he shows much more command at home, walking only 9 batters over 21 innings. He’s also had 14 strikeouts during that stretch– not bad. It’s easy to support the Mets’ second best pitcher in Marcus Stroman (2.75 ERA, 1.12 WHIP over 98.1 innings), a thrower who would easily be the premiere guy for plenty of major league ballclubs. Lately Stroman has struggled, allowing 16 hits and 12 runs over his last 3 starts (in only 13 innings). I’m not sure if that’s a sell-sign or it’s just some mid-season lull, but I like a play on the Pirates to keep New York honest here. Just 6 days ago, Stroman pitched at home against this same Pirates team and allowed 5 hits and 3 runs. Pittsburgh ended up winning that contest 6-2 and even though they could blow this game late (and I fear they might), I’ll take a first half play for 1 unit on a team that has enough talent to surprise mid-tier clubs like the Mets.
Dodgers/Rockies over 11 (-110), 2 units: This feels like a comfy little spot for the Dodgers to start imposing their will on lesser foes following the All-Star break, and we all know the Rockies are a different team–and definitely a different offense– at Coors Field. Walker Buehler was called off and now Julio Urias (3.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP over 106.1 innings), the leftie who’s taken on a ton of innings for a short-staffed Dodgers rotation, faces a big challenge today. In 48 games at home this year, Colorado has 59 homeruns, 450 hits, and 269 runs. Just to compare, on the road over 43 games, Colorado has only 25 homeruns, 285 hits, and 121 runs. That’s quite a Jekyll/Hyde type scenario. Although the humidity will be low (does it really matter that much with the humidor?), Denver will be hot and steamy at 5:40 PST and a perfect environment for some big slugs. Antonio Senzatela (4.58 ERA, 1.40 WHIP over 94.1 innings) gets the nod for the Rockies’ today and although he’s slightly better at Coors (3.75 ERA, 30 runs over 60 innings), he’s still far from commanding. Everyone’s held a residency in Denver the past week and while the pitcher’s may feel reenergized, this is a game where the bats should be on full display. I like the Dodgers to whack themselves to a win today; I like the over more.
