We skipped writing an article yesterday but I put out 3 free plays on Twitter and they all hit, making us 9-2 the last three days betting the majors. Let’s get more!
Red Sox (+114), 1 unit: The Blue Jays ended the 1st half of their season winning 3 of their final 5 games and it looks like the All-Star break has only done them good, having now won 3 in a row by margin against the fledgling Rangers to start the long second-half stretch. The Red Sox are in the opposite position. Boston started off great, beating their rival Yankees 4-0, only to get bested twice in the Bronx by scores of 3-1 and 9-1 in the following contests. Today the Sox continue their road trip and send out Nick Pivetta (4.30 ERA, 1.28 WHIP over 96.1 innings). Pivetta might’ve needed the All-Star break. His numbers have been devolving as the season goes on and he just permitted 5 runs in just 4 innings last Sunday against the Phillies. While we don’t like to always back Pivetta, I think this could serve as an interesting get-right spot. The 4-year starter still has excellent velocity and solid numbers across the board and while the Blue Jays’ offense has been ablaze since last Friday, they’re due for a down-night. Ross Stripling (4.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 74.2 innings) will serve as Toronto’s thrower and while his numbers are similar to Pivetta, he allows way too much hard contact (1.93 HR/9 innings) and can lose command quickly if he’s not in a groove. Conversely to the Blue Jays’ bats, Boston’s hitters are overdue for a big night. I’ll take the Red Sox, who I think are easily the better all-around team, to punk the traveling club from Canada.
Orioles first 5 (+180), 1 unit: This is a pretty simple handicap and it’s all about value. A quick look at the comparable stats between Baltimore and Tampa Bay show two evenly matched offenses– only one doesn’t take advantage of opportunities so well. While the team from Charm City is outscored 454 to 379 to the Rays in runs, the Orioles have more hits and a higher batting average than Tampa. They’ve also been beaten by the Rays 6 straight times this year. Enter the vengeful Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins, (off a glorious HR derby performance) and the visiting O’s who have won 2 out of 3 since the break and have been showing a ton of confidence behind their bats. I like their chances even more with Spencer Watkins (1.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 10.1 innings) behind the mound. The first year pro has shown excellent potential in his first 2 starts. He has a sneaky arsenal of curve-ball and changeup pitches that supplement his four-seam and at 28 years old, he seems to have the intangibles (like passion, humility, work-ethic) that could equate to certified staying power in the Baltimore rotation. As a resident of Baltimore I can tell you– this town loves a blue-collar grinder mold and Watkins may be a perfect fit. Ryan Yarbrough (4.30 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 96.1 innings) gets the nod for Tampa tonight. Yarbrough has been solid but nothing in his profile suggests we should be intimidated or that we should back away from this value play. Give me the Orioles in the first 5!
Giants (+117), 1.5 units: Do you think this series matters to San Francisco? You bet it does. All the so called “experts” and talking heads are awaiting a “return to dominance” from the Dodgers and expecting them to overtake the NL West (they’re still 1 game back). They’re also expecting Los Angeles to reassert themselves as the clear favorites to win their league and the World Series. Not so fast my friends, not so fast.
The Dodgers took the early lead in their rivalry with San Francisco, outscoring them 23-12 in 4 straight wins earlier in the season. LAD owns a 6-3 lead on the year and they won their last contest against the Giants by a score of 2-0. Kevin Gausman (1.73 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 2.57 FIP over 114.2 innings), who will start Monday, was also on the mound for that last battle. I think he’ll get his revenge tonight. The Giants’ ace and Cy Young potential needs little introduction. The 30 year old Gausman is clearly in his prime and has shown off sub 2.4 ERAs in every month. The most runs he’s allowed in a single game all year came way back in April against the Reds, who were on fire at the time and scored 5 against Gausman at Oracle Park. That’s the only time he’s allowed more than 3 runs all season and there are long stretches where he’s only allowed 0 or 1 run in May and June. We think he may stump the Dodgers like he did back on May 29 (2 hits, 0 runs over 6 innings at Dodger Stadium). The Dodgers will send out Tony Gonsolin (2.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 25.1 innings) tonight. Gonsolin has really solid stuff so far, boasting an excellent 89.4% LOB rate and only 0.71 HR/9 innings. I like the NRFI (no runs in first inning) for these two elites, but Gonsolin’s WHIP and xFIP (4.53) concern me and suggest he may be due for some negative regression. Gausman shows no such signs and he knows he needs to be a consistent and commanding thrower for San Francisco’s good fortunes to continue. I like Gausman and the Giants to start proving doubters wrong tonight.
