I love the fact that I get a brief break from NBA action and we can solely focus on baseball and other sports (I’m betting on tennis, the EURO cup, and hockey today in my premium picks. DM me on Twitter to get my premium plays). Here are the bets I like in MLB today:
Padres/Phillies No Run in 1st Inning (-125), 1.5 units: There’s a lot to like about Chris Paddack as a starting pitcher but lately he’s had his share of struggles. I love this bet as a way of backing a pitcher who’s really itching for some positive regression. Today Paddack and the loaded Padres take on Zack Wheeler and his Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Paddack has given up way too many earned runs in June and will look to turn that around today against a foe that doesn’t always bring the heat behind their bats. Wheeler has been consistent all year and he’s only getting better, boasting a 1.44 ERA in June over 31.1 innings. I like the under in the first 5 and for the full game but I like a play on the first inning going scoreless even more. Both of these clubs have the offensive talent to upend this contest but I anticipate both pitchers being on their A-game early.
Nationals win (+105), 1 unit: Why do I keep betting on the Nationals? Because they’re still getting underrated by the books. I’m not too certain that the Dodgers are that much better than the home team tonight and although they lost in a 6-inning cut-off game Thursday, Washington will be all the more poised with their ace on the mound in Max Scherzer (2.14 ERA, 0.85 WHIP over 88.1 innings). Even when he’s getting strip-searched, it’s easy to back Scherzer at home. It’s even easier when his numbers are improving– his ERA is down to 1.42 in June and his 90.2% LOB rate, steady velocity, and propensity to strikeout any hitter sustains Scherzer’s stock as still one of the most dominant pitchers in MLB. Trae Turner is a big part of the Nationals’ turnaround 2021 season so I don’t love that he jammed his finger but the Washington offense still has plenty of firepower to beat Julio Urias (3.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP over 93.1 innings) today. Urias is a consistent, good not great starter who rarely goes beyond 6 innings. I think the Nats can catch him early and force the LAD bullpen into a hasty entrance. I’ll take the Nats at + money for a light unit.
Mets First 5 +0.5 (-115), 2 units: The stumbling Mets, who are still first place in the NL East, take on the equally stumbling Yankees today in the 7:05pm slot. Taijuan Walker (2.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP over 79.1 innings) will get the nod against his inner-city rival and that’s something I’d like to play on tonight. Walker was recently brought back down to earth after an explosion of offense from Washington in his second to last start. While that wasn’t a good look it was also an anomaly. What I really like about this matchup today is Walker’s ability to limit homeruns. The Yankees almost exclusively rely on big slugs and homers to produce offense from their power hitters and that’s an area where Walker thrives, allowing only 0.57 HR/9 innings and showing off a LOB rate of 77.9%. Jordon Montgomery (4.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 82 innings) will oppose the Mets’ offense. While Montgomery has shown some nice stuff in spurts he struggles with consistency, allowing at least 3 runs per game in 4 out of 5 contests last month. Since both of these clubs are having issues producing points on a regular basis, I’ll trust the superior arm in the first 5.
Rockies -1.5 (+165), 1 unit: Why not? The Rockies keep overcoming the odds and winning my margin at their home field and today the Cardinals bring one of their more vulnerable pitchers to the mound in Johan Oviedo (5.23 ERA, 1.58 WHIP over 43 innings). Nothing in his profile suggests that he can keep these confident Rockies’ bats at bay– Colorado’s hitters have outscored their opponents 21-4 during this 4-game stretch in Denver. Chi Chi Gonzalez (5.81 ERA, 1.45 WHIP over 69.2 innings) is no stalwart ace for the Rockies but if he can return to form like he did earlier in the season at home, this could be a blowout today. He’s due for a better showing. I’m on the Rockies by margin, again.
Rangers win (EVEN), 1.5 units: Two teams are streaking entering tonight’s contest but only one is getting the love they deserve. In 6 games this year the Mariners have gotten the best out of the Rangers on 4 different occasions, but what they haven’t experienced is a game opposing Kyle Gibson (2.00 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 90 innings). Texas’ ace is only getting better as the season trudges on, flexing a 1.52 ERA in June. Gibson’s profile is especially impressive in how little homeruns he allows (.60/9 innings) and for his impressive command, as his 85.1% LOB rate and .240 BABIP suggest. The Rangers haven’t had an issue finding their bats lately and while Logan Gilbert (4.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over 36 innings) has done some nice things recently for Seattle, I’ll give the edge to a confident Texas offense and the dominant pitcher in Gibson.
