We were 3-0 yesterday and we’re 12-2 betting baseball the last 4 days– enough said (and in fear of “the jinx”). Onto Tuesday!
Brewers (-157), 1.5 units: Well unfortunately this play isn’t as sexy as my 3 plus-money grabs yesterday but it’ll have to do. I thought Milwaukee was starting Eric Lauer (3.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP over 56.1 innings) today, which meant this would be a 2 unit play, but instead they’re starting Brett Anderson (4.33 ERA, 7.33 xERA, 4.26 xFIP). Anderson should be able to do enough to hold off the ice-cold bats of Kansas City. His numbers aren’t great but at this stage in his career, he certainly has enough experience and confidence to punk a Royals team that just got absolutely waxed by Baltimore. Added to that angle is my desire to fade Mike Minor (5.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP over 106.1 innings). According to FanGraphs, Minor “has been able to keep his spin constant and his recent struggles (6.99 ERA since June 1st) are from a declining velocity. His monthly fastball velocity has gone from 91.6 mph to 91.0 to 90.5 to 90.8 and his slider from 86.3 to 85.5 to 85.4 to 84.8. His strikeout rate was 10.2 K/9 for the first two months but just 6.8 K/9 since June 1st. Nearly unrosterable at his current production.” It shows. Over his last 5 starts, Minor has given up 39 hits and 26 runs over just 26.2 innings. Now the spiraling Royals find themselves at American Family Field against a team they beat twice twice in Kansas City this year. The Brewers have revenge on their mind and I’m betting they get it today.
Marlins/Nationals No Runs in First Inning (-110), 1.5 units: I realize that Juan Soto and the Nationals show no signs of slowing down right now but I still like a quiet start to this contest. What a show they put on yesterday against Miami, though. Soto homered twice and the rest of the Washington lineup followed suit, hammering the Marlins for an 18-1 win. The Nationals are a team on my radar entering the second half of the season. Their schedule is very accommodating and their bats are heating up. And if even Jon Lester is going to command the mound like he did Monday, the Nats could be a real problem in the National League as we near the fall. All that aside, the booming offense we saw yesterday might not have the same opportunities in this matchup. Tonight, Marlins ace Trevor Rogers (2.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP over 101.1 innings) squares off against Washington’s Paolo Espino (3.33 ERA, 1.07 WHIP over 46 innings). Espino is a long time minor-league thrower who at 34 is finally getting a shot to prove he can hang with the big boys. And he may just have what it takes. Espino has gotten obliterated so far in July, permitting 13 hits and 9 runs in just 10.1 innings, but I’m not bothered by it. The Padres came out of the break pissed off (as they should be after how they finished the 1st half) and the Giants and Dodgers are the class of the NL. Many a pitcher has been eaten alive by those crews. Espino is facing a red-hot Nationals team, sure, but their hitting can only drop off after yesterday’s outing. I like the under 9 (-110) in this game but I like a first inning calm even more.
Rockies -1.5 (EVEN), 2 units: This is a great setup for Colorado. Since they’re getting a bit overpriced now that the books have caught up and realize they’re an actual threat at home, I don’t like the moneyline number (-180). Fortunately when you play at Coors Field, most games finish by margin anyway. German Marquez (3.36 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 114 Ks over 112.1 innings) and I have a long and volatile relationship. Last year I was high on him and thought he could have a true breakout year. That didn’t really happen. This year I’ve proceeded with caution and he finally seems to be settling into his own. Figures. Now I’m ready to play on him again so let’s see what happens. I hate to think that Chris Farley’s support of German Marquez means he’ll start to suck but, in the superstitious world of sports gambling, one has to wonder. The real startling thing about Marquez is that he’s playing even better at home. The Rockies aren’t the only offense that enjoys slugging in the mile-high city. Many a pitcher has succumbed to the thin air of Denver but somehow, Marquez has kept batters in check. Over his last 5 starts at home, Marquez has only allowed 4 runs over 34 innings. That’s pretty tremendous. While he’s probably due for some negative regression, his opponent today is Marco Gonzalez (1-5, 5.88 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 56.2 innings). Gonzalez has allowed 19 runs over his last 5 starts (23.4 innings) and shows little signs of improvement. The Rockies just got bested by the NL-elite Dodgers, at home, and now they see an appetizing foe awaiting the slaughter on their home field. I’m on the Rockies by margin.
