It’s a smaller slate of MLB action today, which is kind of nice since that gives us more space to take a deep dive into these games. We nailed 2 out of 3 of our free picks yesterday, making me 15-5 since the All-Star break in major league bets. Hoping for more of the same, here are my favorite picks and predictions for your Thursday slate:
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Tigers (-130), 2 units: When we see the 2021 version of Mike Foltynewicz (5.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP over 102 innings) on the mound, it’s almost an automatic fade. That’s even more true with the direction these two teams are headed. Foltynewicz and the flailing Rangers take the field against the Tigers for one more game to close their regular season series today, a battle owned by Detroit. The Tigers have looked sensational heading out of the All-Star break. Out-scoring their opponents 34-7 over their last 5 games to start the second half of the season and showing off some of the best young pitchers in baseball, the Tigers are suddenly in the heat of the AL Central playoff race after winning 6 straight, itching closer to that .500 mark. They’ve also beaten Texas in 3 straight games and own a 5-1 series lead heading into today’s game at Comerica Park. Reliever Tyler Alexander (4.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP over 43 innings) takes the mound for Detroit Thursday and although his numbers haven’t always been sensational in his limited role, his arm is fresher than most pitchers and he should be able to limit a pedestrian Texas offense. In his most recent outing, Alexander permitted 2 runs in just 3.1 innings against Minnesota. Historically he bounces back with more command after a disappointing performance so I expect a more polished version from the leftie today. I expect no such thing from Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz is only regressing as the season trudges on, allowing a staggering 38 runs over 39.1 innings in June and July. Behind Miguel Cabrera’s recent explosion (7 RBIs in the last 4 contests), a red-hot offense and a group of pitchers that can out-class many a MLB lineup, I’m taking the Tigers to accumulate another win against the free-falling Rangers.
Phillies (+125), 1.5 units: A quick glance at the numbers and you might be tempted to ride Charlie Morton (3.69 ERA, 1.12 WHIP over 105 innings) today but I say not so fast my friends, not so fast. Sure Atlanta still has Freeman and a very solid overall roster, they’re not without hope to make the playoffs, but missing Acuna Jr. adds an element of inconsistency to their offense. The Phillies, on the other hand, are getting healthy at the right time. Harper, Segura, Gregorius, Hoskins, McCutchen– all of Philadelphia’s integral playmakers are poised for a big second half of the season and a big game at home against their NL East rival. Phillies’ starter Matt Moore (5.25 ERA, 1.61 WHIP over 36 innings) leaves a lot to be desired but he’s consistent lately if nothing else, allowing only 2 runs or less in his last 4 starts. In front of their fans the Phillies have won 5 of their last 6 games against Atlanta and of course, all of those competitions had Acuna Jr. in the mix. I sense a solid enough showing from Matt Moore today and an offense ready to explode at Citizens Bank Park– I’m on a Philly win.
Giants first 5 +0.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Giants continue to hang with and at times out-class the reigning champs in Los Angeles, stealing another game Wednesday night as they held LAD to only 2 runs. Today the undervalued NL West leaders are starting one of their best throwers in Anthony DeSclafani (2.78 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over 113.1 innings). DeSclafani permitted a rare 3 runs in his first outing after the All-Star break to the improving Cardinals and will look to redeem his performance tonight against San Francisco’s #1 foe. In short, I trust the 31 year old righty, who still owns an exceptional 81.2% LOB rate and flexes 8.18 K/9 innings. The Dodgers send out Walker Buehler (2.37 ERA, 0.91 WHIP over 121.1 innings) Thursday, who’s been as equally dominant as DeSclafani, and he boasts even more impressive xERA and xFIP marks and slightly better strikeout and LOB rates. In what should be a battle of aces, the Dodgers and Giants have played very evenly in this most recent series. Both teams have performed well on offense in spurts and, predictably, the Giants continue to ride an excellent rotation to stack up wins. Combined with their superb ability to game-plan and out-coach their opponent, I’m wagering that DeSclafani can hang with LAD in the first half of this contest. As the bullpens thin and the Giants become a tad more vulnerable to the big-hitting lineup of the home team, I just like the full game a little less. Though, make no mistake about it, San Francisco could easily knab another victory tonight.
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