It was a good week of MLB betting (21-13 overall), and that was with a bunch of absurd happenings throughout. Of course we’ve come to expect that with baseball. Another fresh week is upon us and we see more opportunity on a small Monday slate. Onto the picks!
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Braves/Mets Game 1 under 6.5 (-110), 2 units: Two good not great offenses enter Monday’s doubleheader for another series between two NL East rivals. While other divisions show more disparity, the NL East is still wide-open. All 5 teams still have a conceivable shot at the playoffs, even Miami, which makes this late-season matchup even more intriguing. New York is still holding onto 1st place but Atlanta is only 5 games behind. With the loss of Acuna Jr., hopes for a big Braves season among their fans has deflated quite a bit. While their offense is still capable, it’s too volatile. In 4 of their most recent games against the Phillies, ATL’s runs tallied 7, 1, 15, and 1. Freddie Freeman is now their anchor and he can be really brilliant in spots; he’s just not as consistent a hitter from game to game. Today I think this contest will be controlled by the dudes on the dirt. The Braves will send out their 6’6″ rookie lefty in Kyle Muller (3.20 ERA, 1.12 WHIP over 19.2 innings). In 3 starts this year, Muller has looked impressive. Known for an elite fastball and his ability to strikeout batters, he also has a tendency to permit plenty of walks. Muller’s big frame and obvious confidence should carry over well in the big-leagues and from what I can tell, both from the eye test and his fresh numbers (3.32 xERA, 3.16 FIP), I think he has plenty of potential. The Mets offense is just as inconsistent as Atlanta’s, ranked all across the board depending on the category, and I like Muller to take advantage of a tired New York lineup fresh off a tough series against Toronto. Marcus Stroman (2.58 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over 111.1 innings) commands the mound for the home team Monday and while some numbers suggest he may be due for negative regression (4.48 xERA, 50.9% GB rate), this is a tough spot for the Braves’ bats on the road in an early game. I’ll take the under.
Phillies (-117), 1.5 units: The difference in this contest is offense. Joe Ross (4.02 ERA, 1.20 WHIP over 87.1 innings) comes off the 10-day IL today (elbow) and will get the nod for the Nationals. He’s had a mostly solid year, although his sinking GB rate (43.3%) and escalating allowance of homeruns (1.55/9 innings) is concerning. Spencer Howard (5.11 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 24.2 innings) has similar numbers in his short stint this year. This is the second opportunity he’s had in the majors and Philadelphia has big dreams for the 24 year old, whose ideal frame and elite arm is demonstrated in his scintillating strikeouts and ability to limit big slugs. That should bode well for him today. With Starlin Castro and Kyle Schwarber out for the Nats, it’s just too hard to trust their hitters. That’s especially true if Soto is having an off night. Soto and Trea Turner and other Nats-bats are capable of providing enough run support but it’s obvious they’re feeling the pressure; their latest series loss, where they only scored 8 points over 3 games and got swept by one of the worst rotations in Baltimore, is a great example of their shortcomings. The Phillies are considerably more healthy and more able on offense and I think that’ll be the difference today. A run-line bet is also in the cards.
Astros/Mariners first 5 under 4.5 (-120), 1.2 units: This is a really interesting game. Newcomer Darren McCaughan will get his first official start for Seattle on Monday, fresh off a 5-inning no-hitter at Coors Field. At only 25, McCaughan stepped up in a big spot against the Rockies in relief for the Mariners’ rotation and he did it seemingly without nerves. In McCaughan’s words, “It was kind of like a breath of fresh air once I finally got out there. I think pitching in spring training games I was more nervous, just because I expected to play and I knew I was gonna get in there at some point.” (credit to KRQE out of Albuquerque). That showing was enough to earn him tonight’s opportunity against one of the best offenses in the majors and I think he can take advantage. I like this first half play even more because Luis Garcia (2.86 ERA, 1.06 WHIP over 91.1 innings) is on the mound for Houston. Garcia’s profile continues to impress, boasting a 81.4% LOB rate, a 3.42 xERA and still allowing less than one homerun per 9 innings. Last time he pitched against the Mariners he took a loss even though he only allowed only 1 run over 5 innings back in April. Seattle won 1-0. The Mariners are no doubt feeling a little fat and sassy heading into this contest after winning 3 out of 4 games against the Athletics. Against another AL West rival Monday night, Seattle is now just 7 games behind Houston for the #1 spot in their division. If the Mariners can limit the Astros production, they have a shot to start this series on a high note. I’m betting that this game is a slow-starter and an early battle between two young studs. I’ll take the under in the first half to earn 1 unit.
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