After a bad Tuesday (who likes Tuesday any way? No one) we got a nice bounce back Wednesday, going 2-1 overall (and it really should have been 3-0; thanks for the late game flops, Miami). Onto a shorter card Thursday:
Yankees (-124), 2 units: This is actually a really great price on Gerrit Cole (2.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 125 innings) and the Yankees today, therefore my hand is forced! Cole has had some bad moments in big spots this year, including another lackluster game against the Red Sox last time out, but overall he still owns one of the most commanding profiles in baseball. His WHIP ranks 7th in the majors and he still has more strikeouts than any other thrower. Today he’ll rival Luis Patino (5.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 25.2 innings), the nice and green 21 year old who the Rays see a ton of potential in, but who also sacrificed 5 hits and 4 runs over 5.1 innings last time to Cleveland. The Yankees’ bats haven’t always performed well this year but it’s still a very intimidating group of hitters. That’s especially true if they finally allow Aaron Judge to stay in the lineup. I expect the Yankees, who need to start winning if they want to stay in the AL East race, to show-out on offense and win in a highly lopsided pitching matchup.
White Sox (-180), 1.8 units: I hate to not be as detailed here but this is basically the same handicap as above. Chicago is starting their ace Carlos Rodon (2.24 ERA, 0.92 WHIP over 100.2 innings) against Carlos Hernandez (6.04 ERA, 1.66 WHIP over 28.1 innings), KC’s 24 year old up and comer who’s had his struggles since getting the opportunity to start. The team with the more offensive prowess and considerably better pitcher is getting a price that I’m not too proud to pay– I’ll take the White Sox to win a unit.
Nationals/Phillies Game 2 over 8.5 (-115), 1.5 units: These are two teams heading in opposite directions and when one team is on the decline like the Nationals, that usually means you’ll see regression more from their defense. Personally I thought the Nationals would come out on fire after their break– their schedule is certainly favorable, but after dropping all 3 games to the Orioles and now tying up their latest series with Philly, it doesn’t appear they have the gusto or consistency to hang. I’m betting that they’ll be sellers at the trade deadline. Either way, the Nationals still have the offensive prowess to produce plenty of runs, as we saw 2 nights ago, and game 2’s pitching matchup isn’t one for either team to fear. Sometimes it’s more about offense and it’s more about the spot– I see plenty of subpar pitches and big slugs in this contest.
