A nice 2-1 Monday was a swell start to the week, especially when you win with two underdogs– let’s KEEP winning!
Mets first 5 -0.5 (-165), 1.65 units and Mets -1.5 (-120), 1.5 units: This is a pretty square pick and when I tend to bet on deGrom dominating it can really backfire, but that’s mostly just the complaints of a jinx-avoidant sports gambler. The world’s best pitcher shows no signs of slowing down and the Brewers bats, despite some of their success, don’t scare me. The Mets aren’t particularly good against lefties either, so this isn’t a “bad setup” for Brett Anderson (4.69 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 48 innings). Anderson is off a 10 day IL due to a knee issue, which probably doesn’t bode too well for the declining starter. His 7.22 xERA, increasing homerun rate (1.31/9 innings) and decreasing LOB rate (70.7%) have me off the first 5 or full game under. Instead I’ll go with deGrom (0.95 ERA, 054 WHIP over 85 innings) to control this game early and often and the Mets to take advantage in a good spot at home. New York needs to keep winning to maintain their position in the NL East.
Tigers (+152), 1 unit: The Tigers are once again the underdog and I shall once again take advantage. Globe Life Field is a well-known pitcher’s park so it’s no wonder why Dane Dunning (4.38 ERA, 1.51 WHIP over 74 innings) has had plenty of success at home. We care not. The Tigers have won 10 of their last 12 ballgames and they dominated the Rangers last night, up 7-0 entering the 9th. Jose Urena (6.22 ERA, 1.66 WHIP over 72.1 innings) doesn’t have a great profile in 2021 but this is more about the Tigers as a team. Detroit has been excellent at managing in-game situations (bunting in spots, moving base runners, stealing bases, etc.) and I can’t not favor them again tonight.
Diamondbacks (-132), 1.32 units: A bet on the D-Backs is always scary but they might be meeting an even more inferior foe Tuesday night at home. The Rockies are a play-on team for me when they’re comfortably whacking balls at Coors Field but on the road, I happily bet against them and I bet against them often. Merrill Kelly (AZ- 4.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP over 98.1 innings) has been steadily improving as the season wanes on. His ERA has improved vastly and his command has been solid, allowing just over 2 runs per game in his last 5 starts. Colorado comes to town feeling fat and sassy after 2 series wins at home against the Pirates and Cardinals. They’ll start 29 year old Jon Gray (3.89 ERA, 1.24 WHIP over 74 innings), who got exposed for 10 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings the last time he visited Chase Field. While that may give him the steam to do better, I don’t trust him as far as I can throw him. The Diamondbacks have a rare opportunity to take care of business when the Rockies’ visit and I like them to snag a victory today.
