A nice 2-1 Memorial Day gives us a solid start to the week. I love seeing deGrom taking care of by the Mets’ bats for the W, which sealed our winning day. Onto Tuesday!
White Sox/Indians over 7 (-115), 1 unit: Initially I wanted to take the under in this contest but I’m going the other way. Dylan Cease has good numbers (2.98 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 1.27 WHIP over 51.1 innings) but he’s walking way too many batters, averaging 4.56 walks every 9 innings. Cease’s four-seam fastball, slider, and occasionally his curveball excel at preventing hard contact. That’s good– Cleveland is near the bottom of MLB in hits per game and ranked in the bottom half in slugging percentage. What you can’t do is give Cleveland opportunities. While the Indians aren’t known for their dynamic hitting talent, they’re a crafty and well-coached team. Cease’s tendency to walk hitters should permit more scoring chances than the Indians are used to. At home, I think that means more runs. Shane Bieber (3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 72 innings) takes the mound for Cleveland and while his numbers also look good from the outside, he’s allowing both too many walks (3.38) and homeruns (1.13) per 9 innings, at least compared to what he’s capable of. Chicago isn’t an offense that needs more opportunities. Bieber has handled the White Sox well in two previous starts but I sense a little negative regression coming today. Bieber allowed 3 hits and 0 runs in his first start against the Sox, a game where he played all 9 innings, and then allowed 7 hits for 3 runs in his second matchup against CWS. Bieber is an elite pitcher but the White Sox are elite on offense and I think they’ll get the better of him today. I like a sneaky over in this one.
Twins win (-172), 2 units and Twins/Orioles over 9 (-115), 1 unit: Two separate bets, although a parlay isn’t a bad idea. How many losses in a row is that now for Baltimore? 14? I’ve lost count. The once-hopeful Baltimore Orioles, a team I fondly remember back in April, are now back to the perpetually descending bottom-dwellers we’ve seen for the past few years. Mistake-prone and with issues on both offense and defense, the Orioles can’t muster a win over the last 2+ weeks and you can tell it’s starting to take it’s toll. They came close in a solid game against Jose Berrios and the Twins last night, a contest that went 1 extra inning, but they couldn’t prevent the big hits in the 10th. I don’t trust Baltimore’s starter Bruce Zimmerman (5.15 ERA, 1.53 WHIP over 43.2 innings) as far as I can throw him, although he has pitched better lately. On the season he’s allowing over 2 homeruns per 9 innings, which I hate for his forecast Tuesday. It’s warm and the humidity is rising in Charm City. Minnesota is also an improving team against lefties and in the top half of the league in .OPS. Michael Pineda (2.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over 44.2 innings) has good numbers but he definitely allows too many big hits (1.81 HR/9 innings) and other parts of his profile show negative regression is on the way (4.44 FIP, 3.86 xFIP, 38.3% GB rate). I expect both teams to take advantage of their hitting opportunities in this contest, but it’s the Twins who have the more rested bullpen and obviously the better overall team. Until we see Means on the mound, I’ll keep betting against Baltimore.
Tigers win first 5 (+120), 1 unit: Thirty year old leftie Matthew Boyd (3.43 ERA, 1.13 WHIP over 57.2 innings) is due for some positive regression. Boyd starting the season with a strong and steady command, allowing some contact but never letting the doors blow off in his first 7 starts. Lately that’s all he’s done. Over his last 3 starts, Boyd has allowed 20 hits and 14 runs in just 16 innings, and it wasn’t exactly against the class of the majors (KC, CHC, CLE). The Cubs are one of the best offenses against lefties so that makes sense, but the other two were head-scratchers. Boyd still does a good job at preventing big hits (0.47 homeruns/9 innings) and his 3.21 FIP indicates his profile isn’t that terrible. Eric Lauer (2.45 ERA, 4.44 xERA, 4.48 FIP) has done well in just 22 innings but he’s certainly due for some negative regression. Look at his numbers from previous seasons and it’s abundantly clear– there’s a drastic difference in metrics. One can only assume he’ll stumble here shortly and those numbers will adjust back to his averages. Until yesterday the Tigers were riding high and confident on a little tear after their series win against the Yankees. Expect for them to look for some revenge today against a beatable Brewers team. I’ll take Boyd and Detroit in the first 5 for a sneaky + money grab.
Athletics win (-160), 2 units: It felt like Oakland should have gotten the win yesterday but instead the Mariners bats orchestrated a big 10th inning and it sealed the home team’s victory. I expect a different result today. Chris Bassitt’s (3.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP over 70 innings) profile makes me want to play on him. The 7 year starter is showing solid command and excelling at preventing hard contact (0.64 HR/9 innings). His xERA (2.91) and FIP (2.92) speak to his steady nature. The Mariners will send Marco Gonzalez (5.40 ERA, 1.34 WHIP over 28.1 innings) to the mound tonight and his numbers are trending in the opposite direction. Marco allows 1.91 homeruns/9 innings, walks 3.49/9 innings, and has a decreasing four-seam velocity, LOB rate (71.9%) and groundball rate (32.6%). His xERA and FIP only make him look worse. On top of that, Oakland is above-average against lefties so far this season, hitting .742 OPS and an average of .238. Somehow the AL West leader has dropped 3 out of 4 games to Seattle so far; this feels like a good game for redemption. Give me Oakland for 2 units.
