It’s been wayyyy too long since I wrote an MLB article but we’re back in the full swing of things now! Onto more picks and more wins!
Giants -1.5 (even), 1 unit: I’ll bet on the Giants at home against the sinking Diamondbacks 10 days out of 10 if I had to and this spot is no different. In an attempt to hang with San Francisco’s superb pitchers and hitters who have embarrassed Arizona’s rotation, the D-Backs send Zac Gallen (3.04 ERA, 1.20 WHIP over 26.2 innings) back to the mound Thursday, who they’ve missed since his setback from an elbow injury. While Gallen has been formidable this year and his numbers speak to his steady command (3.05 FIP, 0.34 HR/9 innings, 3.8% HR/FB ratio), he’ll have to faceoff against Kevin Gausman (1.43 ERA, 0.78 WHIP over 81.2 innings). Gausman has had an elite year in 2021, “Only Jacob deGrom has a better ERA among qualifiers, and that pitcher is having what could be a year for the ages. Gausman’s sixth in WAR, fifth in FIP, seventh in swinging strikes, and 10th in contact rate. And while he’s not likely to finish the year with an ERA anywhere near his current microscopic 1.27, his 2.20 FIP is an easy career-best so far and not explained entirely by the drop in league-wide offense.” One must proceed with caution when a pitcher returns from injury in baseball and although Gallen can be electric, I don’t trust him going up against Gausman and this confident Giants unit. I especially don’t trust him in his first game back. I’m on the NL’s best to win by margin.
Brewers win (-153), 1.5 units: The Rockies are a different team at home, as we all know, but I’m ready to fade German Marquez (4.60 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 76.1 innings) and count on more negative regression for him tonight. Marquez was on a nice little run before he got blasted by the Reds in his last start, holding batters to 4 hits or less and 1 run or less in four straight contests, averaging 6.5 innings during that stretch. After getting exposed by Cincinnati, Marquez heads back to Coors to take on a Brewers’ unit that’s dying to see some positive regression on offense. That’s not a good combination. It’ll be 100 degrees during the day in Denver and likely still in the 90s at first pitch. A suffocating heat at Coors can only mean one thing– runs are a-comin’! Unfortunately for Colorado, it gets worse. Milwaukee sends out the trustworthy Brandon Woodruff (1.52 ERA, 0.72 WHIP over 83 innings) Thursday, who has showed 0 signs that his command will dip off any time soon. With a 2.49 FIP and allowing only 0.65 HR/9 innings, Woodruff is the perfect pitcher to limit the Rockies’ bats and open the door for a big scoring day for his team. I’ll gladly take the Brewers at a line that’s very giving.
Angels -1.5 (even), 1 unit: The Detroit Tigers call up minor-league elite and long-awaited prospect Matt Manning to the pros today as they gear up to oppose Shohei Ohtani (2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 47.1 innings) and the stumbling Angels. LAA just lost 3 straight to their AL West leading rival Oakland A’s but now they get to return home under the talented Ohtani and they hope for positive regression on both sides of the dirt. Manning didn’t need his 6’6″ frame to stand out when he was drafted; his early numbers in 2016 and 2017 had the baseball world immediately paying attention. His numbers remained consistent until COVID took the world by storm and now, in 2021, his outlook is looking a little more dim. Manning has struggled over 32.1 innings in triple-A this year, presenting a dismal 8.07 ERA, 6.54 FIP, a BABIP of .333 and allowing 3.06 HR/9 innings (hint: that’s not good). For the most part Ohtani has been solid on the mound, creating low-scoring affairs and allowing his offense to take over games. While the Tigers have surprised all of us this year with some great series wins, this is a significantly better spot for LAA and I smell a big win for a home team who needs it. Give me the Angels behind Ohtani in a blowout.
