The Summer Solstice has officially passed, I’m back on the grid with 5 bars on my phone and as the NBA season winds down to only 4 teams remaining, we can continue to focus more on America’s past-time. After a winning week betting MLB, here are Monday’s picks:
Indians (+135), 1 unit: Aaron Civale (3.48 ERA, 1.06 WHIP over 93 innings) has a good track record on the road, where he’s 5-1 with a 3.69/4.04 ERA/xERA split and 1.06 WHIP in 46 innings. That bodes well for him today since he’ll be facing a Cubs club that can’t seem to muster any offense lately. Chicago has scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 8 games and somehow have only managed 11 hits in a 3-game series vs the Marlins. That’s awfully crappy. Over their last 5 games, the Cubbies have 18 hits total and do not have more than 5 hits in any single game over their last 5 games. Yikes. Adbert Alzolay (4.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP over 57.2 innings) is coming off the 10-day injured list after suffering a blister on his middle finger. His numbers are good but unfortunately modern baseball isn’t just about great pitching and with the way Chicago’s been lacking any offensive prowess, I like this spot way better for Cleveland. I think “the Land” gets a win today.
Twins (+105), 1.5 units: These are two teams going in opposite directions but the Reds are under the impression that Tyler Mahle (3.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP over 74.1 innings) can be their savior and pluck them off the schneid. I can’t say I blame them– Mahle has had an very good season, allowing just under 1 homerun per 9 innings, an 11.1% HR/FB ratio and a solid LOB percentage of 75.9%. The issue is with Cincinnati’s bats, who all but fell asleep in their latest series against San Diego. J.A. Happ (6.12 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 60.1 innings) doesn’t bring good numbers into Monday but he’s due for some positive regression. This could be the spot. Happy is better than his stats indicate and even though his velocity is down a tick and his command can be shaky, he’s at home behind an offense that’s ultra-confident. I like this setup for the Twins for a little + money today.
Padres (-130), 1.3 units: Two NL West kings are surging and they’re neck-n-neck vying for that second place spot under San Francisco. Today they’ll both send one of their best pitchers to the mound, Julio Urias (3.54 ERA, 1.00 WHIP over 84 innings) for LAD and Yu Darvish (2.57 ERA, 0.95 WHIP over 84 innings) for San Diego. While it’s always hard to pick a side in this rivalry, I think the Padres are in a better spot. They trust Yu Darvish, even though he’s had two straight starts that were far from the gems we’ve seen all year, but for me that’s even more reason to bet on him tonight. The Padres have a slight edge in their series with LAD and they’re better at home, where they’re 25-14 overall. They’re also fresh off an impressive series win against Cincinnati while the Dodgers predictably punked the MLB’s worst in the Diamondbacks. LAD stays on the road and travels to face a far better opponent on Monday. San Diego looked average in mid-June but they turned that ship around against the Reds and I expect them to carry that momentum into tonight. I’ll take the Padres at a nice number to win 1 unit.
