We had a great start to the week, going 3-0 in MLB bets yesterday, including 2 + money wins! Let’s keep the train rollin’ (can I get a choo-chooo) as we head to Tuesday!
Lean, Reds win (-103): The Reds got bested late last night in extra innings to seal our sweep, but I think this may be the spot where Cincinnati gets some redemption. Wade Miley (2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP over 68.2 innings) hits the mound against the unproven Bailey Ober (3.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 17 innings) Tuesday. The Reds have lost 5 straight but at least their bats looked alive last night. Miley is coming off 2 straight subpar performances and will look to turn that around in the early game this afternoon. I’d put a light unit on this if it wasn’t for Minnesota’s offense since they have performed noticeably well against lefties (.257 batting average, .450 slugging percentage). Consider a play on the away team but approach this with caution– the Reds are doing just enough to lose in every situation lately and it’s a bit concerning.
White Sox -1.5 (-115), 1.5 units: Should the White Sox always be an automatic play against lefties? No. But are they an automatic play against a bad leftie pitcher and a bad team? Yes. After a good start to the year, Tyler Anderson (4.89 ERA, 1.26 WHIP 73.2 innings) has been very hittable this season, displaying a 5.76 ERA in May and a 5.71 ERA so far in June. Recently his BAPIB and HR allowance are also on the rise, which isn’t a good projection heading into Tuesday. The White Sox are always a confident offense but against a leftie they’re really exceptional, flexing a .456 slugging percentage and .274 batting average, both well above their marks against a right-handed thrower. Lucas Giolito (3.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP over 81.2 innings) hits the mound for Chicago and while he’s been a little exposed lately, I expect some positive regression today against a Pirates team that’s touch and go behind the plate. The Pirates also own one of the worst batting averages (.228, good for 26th in MLB) and the worst slugging percentages (.352) in MLB. I’ll take my chances on the Sox by margin for a unit and a half.
Astros -1.5 (-130), 2 units: The Orioles are good at surprising solid teams and when there’s value on Baltimore I love to seize the day. Unfortunately I don’t think this series will present many of those opportunities. Houston’s ace Zack Greinke (3.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 91.1 innings) has been a workhorse this season. He’s had a few slip-ups recently but overall his profile shows his consistent command and ability to limit hard contact. He’ll oppose Baltimore Jorge Lopez (5.95 ERA, 1.49 WHIP over 65 innings), who brings a strong arm but has really struggled to prevent big hits, allowing 3.74 HR/9 innings, which is (for lack of a better word) quite horrendous. The Astros are white hot right now: they’re 10-2 over their last 12 games and they’ve won 8 straight. If this game is still played (it’s a rainy day in Baltimore but looks like it could dry up by first pitch), I like Houston to embarrass the home-team O’s once again.
Mariners (-160), 1.6 units: Nothing takes the wind out of Colorado’s sails more than losses at home, where they tend to thrive thanks to the luxurious high-altitude setting in Denver. Now the Rockies hit the road once again where they’re an abysmal 5-27 to take on the surging Mariners. Seattle has really been impressive lately, winning 7 out of their last 8 games and climbing up the AL West standings to position themselves just 2 games under Oakland for 2nd place. While the Mariners’ bats still struggle to deliver consistent production, lately they’ve been more than viable. A recent 4-0 series sweep over Tampa Bay, where they won 2 of those contests by margin, must be an extra boost in confidence, too. Today Seattle sends Chris Flexen (4.12 ERA, 1.29 WHIP over 67.2 innings) to the dirt, who we’ve seen throw some real gems in April and June. His 3.79 FIP, 0.93 HR/9 innings and 71.6% LOB percentage speak to his solid command. The Rockies, meanwhile, are starting the vulnerable Kyle Freeland (0-2, 9.58 ERA, 2.27 WHIP over 20.2 innings), who hasn’t looked steady at all since returning to action in late May. While we expect some positive regression from the 5 year starter, his numbers are alarmingly trending in the wrong direction and we can’t trust that this will be the start where he turns it around; that’s especially true against this confident Seattle unit at home. I’m on the Mariners today to earn us 1 unit.
