We went 1-2 yesterday, big time let down from the White Sox not winning by margin, but we’re still 6-3 this week and primed for another winning day. Onto my picks!
Orioles win (+170), 1 unit: This is a good spot for the Orioles. After getting banged up and embarrassed at home by Houston, Baltimore is probably more than happy to be away from Camden Yards tonight. It’ll be 81 degrees and humid in Buffalo NY when the O’s come to town to face a Blue Jays team who just won 4 straight games. Good for Toronto but today they’re sending the vulnerable Anthony Kay to the mound, a lefty who’s received multiple chances in the majors before but couldn’t sustain any command. In 21 innings this year, he’s allowed 2.14 HR/9 innings and owns a FIP of 5.92. Dean Kramer is no ace but I think the Orioles take advantage of this opportunity and get off the schneid.
Marlins win (-102), 1.5 units: This is less about the Marlins and more about the Nationals. Washington eked out a 13-12 win last night in a wild offensive contest with the Phillies. The Nats remain on the road tonight where the sun and bikinis and beautiful weather awaits in Southern Florida. Their bullpen has to be exhausted after last night’s defensive woes and the Marlins need a win after dropping 3 straight. The jury is still out on Cody Poteet (3.90 ERA, 1.12 WHIP over 27.2 innings) and while I don’t love his profile, I don’t love Joe Ross’ (4.54 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 67.1 innings) either. This is a significantly better spot for Miami at a great price. Roll out the cabbage!
Astros -1.5 (-155), 2 units: The Astros breezed right by the Orioles and they ride a 10-game winning streak into Detroit tonight. While the Tigers can’t be enthused by that fact alone, their prospect looks even more grim tonight since Houston’s rolling out one of their best pitchers in Luis Garcia (2.82 ERA, 1.07 WHIP over 70.1 innings). Detroit’s Jose Urena (5.79 ERA, 1.59 WHIP over 65.1 innings) isn’t in the same class and he seems to be getting worse (check out his FanGraphs profile). Meanwhile, the visiting Astros’ bats are WHITE HOT. That’s especially true against bad pitching (which Baltimore has plenty of). There’s a lot of different ways you could bet this — first 5 by margin, full game by significant margin, etc. — and I would explore those options. Detroit has found ways to steal wins, mostly because of their consistent offense, but they should be completely outmatched tonight. I lean to the over (10) for obvious reasons, too.
