Man oh man, days like yesterday really make you pause and tread carefully before wagering on the majors again. The Dodgers, with arguably their best pitcher in Walker Buehler on the mound, had a hitless game against Zach Davies and the Cubs. The Orioles were in a great spot and yet again couldn’t muster any offense. Okay, maybe that second one isn’t that big of a surprise but still, MLB can be a really daunting sport to wager on and it’s days like yesterday that set all of us back. Still, we have to trust our best betting techniques and look for value, even if it’s scary. Onto Friday!
Blue Jays win (-160), 1.6 units: I can’t wait until the O’s win this game 12-0 and full-on positive regression takes place the day I bet against them BUT, here goes nothin’. To say Baltimore is slumping would be an understatement; they’re getting their ass kicked on a regular basis. A no-hitter from John Means and the return of Trey Mancini had Charm City excited at the start of the season. Now the Orioles are starting to resemble the same old franchise we all know after Cal left– subpar pitching, inconsistent bats, and a huge talent-gap between them and most of their competition. That should all be on full display today. Toronto’s 6’6″ first year starter Alek Manoah (4.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 23.2 innings) is starting to show why Blue Jay fans were so excited about his potential. Ironically, only the Orioles have given him trouble recently. In four previous games over 20.1 innings, Manoah only allowed 14 hits and 7 runs. Against Baltimore on June 19, Manoah permitted 5 runs in just 3.1 innings. The away team O’s will start Matt Harvey (7.80 ERA, 1.78 WHIP over 62.1 innings) Friday. The 32 year old righty continues to decline in the tail half of his career but his 4.69 FIP indicates lady luck hasn’t exactly been on his side. Still, I can’t count on him today against the confident bats of Toronto. Winners of 5 straight and after a 9-0 beatdown of Baltimore yesterday, the Blue Jays feel lightyears ahead of the Orioles right now, even though they’re both bottom feeders of the AL East. I expect redemption for Manoah “at home” in Buffalo and a win for the Jays.
Marlins win (-150), 1.5 units: I’m not going to overthink or overanalyze this one. I trust Pablo Lopez (2.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP over 85 innings) WAY more than Jon Lester (3.96 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 50 innings), who I always love to fade, and the Marlins are long overdue for a win. The Nationals have won 5 straight and 10 out of their last 11 games, which naturally scares me a little, but this matchup and spot just favors Miami too much to not bet. It’s the Marlins or nothin’ for me– I choose the Marlins.
White Sox -1.5 (-110), 1 unit: If you keep doing the same thing over and over again even though you don’t get the desired result, you’re a little crazy, right? Well, maybe I’m a little fuckin’ crazy (great quote from Wedding Crashers) but I’m going to put my hard-earned money down on the White Sox by margin, again. Twice I’ve done that this week when they opposed the Pirates– they lost one game and won the other by only 1 run. Today, Chicago’s ace Carlos Rodon (1.83 ERA, 0.84 WHIP over 73.2 innings) faces off against Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi (3.46 ERA, 1.04 WHIP over 80.2 innings). Despite some of Kikuchi’s initial struggles at the start of the season, he’s built a really solid profile over the past few months, generating a 3.38 ERA in May and a 2.00 ERA so far in June. I’m a believer in Kikuchi but I’m a bigger believer in Rodon and the White Sox bats. That fact that there’s chatter about trading Kikuchi can’t sit well with him, either. Losers of 5 of their last 6 contests, the Sox are too deep and talented to not explode eventually and this feels like as good a spot as any against one of the worst offenses in baseball.
