Two games were cancelled and the other two bets I had were losers yesterday– not my best showing– but sometimes how’s how the cookie crumbles. Dusting myself off and still over .500 for this wild early MLB season, we move onto Thursday’s picks:
Nationals win (+125), 1 unit: I might be an idiot for playing on Washington here for several reasons. Atlanta is due for some positive regression on all sides: their bats are cold, their rotation and bullpen is volatile and inconsistent, and they’ve lost 4 out of their last 5 games. They’re also at home in a good spot against a pitcher I usually like to fade in Patrick Corbin (6.23 ERA, 1.52 WHIP over 52 innings). His velocity isn’t terrible but he’s allowing way too much hard contact and has very little command. His sinking LOB rate (67%) and 24.4% HR/flyball ratio speak to that, although he’s surely had some really solid outings. Today the Braves will send youngster Tucker Davidson to the mound, who will get his second start of the season. With Ozuna likely out for the year and mounting issues on the team, it feels like Atlanta is in panic-mode a bit and I can’t trust the young arm, even if he’s shown some potential, against these Nats-bats that look very comfortable on the road. I’m on the away team to snag another win at Truist Park.
Rays first 5 +0.5 (+105), 1 unit: I’ll take another shot at + money here. The Rays have been untypically owned by the Yankees in their latest series but the games have been close. Ryan Yarborough (4.26 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.20 FIP, 4.11 xFIP over 57 innings) has had an up and down start to 2021 but I’d say he’s due for some positive regression. His LOB rate (65.3%) and HR/9 innings rate (1.26) is atypical and should improve. Gerrit Cole (1.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP over 70.2 innings) is as dominant as ever but he’s been used a ton and Tampa probably wants this game more than New York. The Rays are 7-5 against the Yankees this year but if they fall again today they lose more distance between them and their ever-threatening foe. I’m on Yarborough to command beyond his 2021 average in the first 5 and for this score to either be tied or even better, Tampa takes an early lead.
White Sox -1.5 (even), 1.5 units: The Tigers have been awfully sneaky lately, winners of 4 out of their last 5 and against good teams in NYY and Milwaukee. Unfortunately I think the climb stops here. Like we see so often in other sports, there’s a real disparity between elite teams and teams that are simply surging for a period of time. I really like what Detroit and their rotation has done lately, but an interdivisional matchup like this doesn’t allow the same maneuvering. The AL Central leading Chicago White Sox and their superb lineup are due for some positive regression after two stinkers against Cleveland this week. Lance Lynn (1.37 ERA, 0.93 WHIP over 52.2 innings) has been exceptional this season. His xFIP (3.98) concerns me a little but his ability to control the game and prevent hard contact (0.68 HR/9 innings, 6.3% HR/flyball ratio) is tremendous. I don’t see him having any issue against, let’s face it, still a well below-average Detroit lineup. The Tigers will bring out Casey Mize (3.28 ERA, 1.11 WHIP over 57.2 innings), who’s played well this year in big spots, but typically he doesn’t perform as well against the White Sox. Chicago is at home and looking for some familiar food to feast on– I think this is a big win for the AL Central’s best club.
