Back on the mound for me as we try to figure out this wildly unpredictable game called baseball. Good handicapping wins in the long run– onto our picks!
Parlay- Angels and Twins win (1 unit to win 3.3): It’s ill-advised to take on parlays that have no relation to each other– that’s true. Over the long run you will surely lose and if you want to take these two bets separately, be my guest. I’m not an advocate of what the big public books want you to think — that we can all get rich off of insane 7-prop parlays. That’s how they steal our money. That being said, I see opportunity here with these two contests and I’d like to maximize my use of 1 unit.
Domingo German (4.32 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 73 innings) has experienced a drop-off since May. Over his last 5 showings at the mound, German has a rough 5.12 xERA and groundball numbers on the decline. It’ll be hot, humid and annoying today in the Bronx, which isn’t a good recipe when facing off against LAA and their able bats. Insert Shohei Ohtani (2.58 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 59.1 innings). The MVP candidate has played well into the second half in many of his starts and owns a 2.79 ERA over his last 5 on the dirt. The dynamic Ohtani also boasts a .489 OPS against right handed pitchers. Advantage, Angels.
The 2021 Twins lineup has some damn good numbers against Dylan Cease (3.81 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 75.2 innings) — .847 OPS, .467 OBP and a .289 BAA. Cease has had some really good starts in June but we’re not sure it’s not just really good fortune. In his last 18.2 innings he’s only allowed 1 earned run– that’s not sustainable. Bailey Ober (4.64 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 21.1 innings) had a really bad outing against the Reds on June 22 but he was solid in 4 starts prior. I expect a bounce-back performance from Ober and a Twins lineup unafraid to take advantage of Cease’s vulnerabilities equaling a win.
Rays/Nats over 9.5 (-110), 1 unit: Drew Rasmussen will get the nod today for the Rays, who probably won’t play beyond 2 innings, as he gets his second real try-out for Tampa. Traded from Milwaukee back in May, Rasmussen hopes to get his career in gear with a team built to improve their throwers. His lightning velocity and expressed potential in the minors should help his case, but Wednesday he’s facing off against a Washington offense that’s had little issue scoring in June. Charged up by the magnificence of Kyle Schwarber, who now has an unreal ( and historic) 12 homeruns over the last 10 games, other great Nats hitters like Trae Turner and Juan Soto surely feel less pressure to hold the offense on their back. Michael Wacha (TB- 4.66 ERA, 4.08 FIP over 48.1 innings) will take over early and while he has a pretty solid profile overall, the Washington bats are in a prime position on a scorching hot day in DC. You already know I love to fade Jon Lester (4.99 ERA, 1.53 WHIP over 52.1 innings) and this spot is no different. The Rays are far from one of the best offenses in MLB but they’ll likely need to chase today and Lester should be as vulnerable and accommodating as ever (especially if his last start against Miami is any indication of his inevitable in-season decline). I’m on the over.
Marlins/Phillies No Run in First Inning (+115), 1 unit: This is one of my premium picks but I’m giving it out free here today. Jordon Holloway (2.55 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 17.2 innings) and Aaron Nola (3.97 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 90.2 innings) are both pitchers I want to get behind. Nola isn’t having as strong a season as he has in the past but he can still strikeout batters with the best of ’em, currently 17th overall among pitchers with 107 K’s on the year. Holloway’s massive 6’6″, 230 pound frame fits his strong-armed style but he has struggled with consistency. Still, he has yet to allow a homerun this year and his solid xERA (2.84) and LOB rate (71.4%) point to a possible growth in command. I’m going to bet on both these pitchers to start off strong– though I’m too gun-shy to bet that throughout this entire contest.
