A nice 2-1 day yesterday and we’re 8-5 in MLB free plays this week. Happy Friday!
Indians win (-113), 2 units: The Cleveland Indians bring their services to the town of Baltimore today as the Orioles recently, finally, got off the schneid with some nice wins over Minnesota. It’s a battle of young promising pitchers today as Baltimore’s Keegan Akin, a 2nd year starter who did just okay in his 2020 majors debut, takes on big man Jean Carlos Mejia, the 24 year old Dominican righty who’s been tearing up the minors. He’ll get his first shot at earning a long-term stay in the majors this year. Mejia, in just 5 short innings in 2021, has looked the part. Back in 2019, FanGraphs noted that, “(Mejia) showed the ability to overpower hitters and had a K-BB of 36-9 with a strong ground-ball rate. He has the potential for three above-average offerings, including a 92-95 mph fastball. Standing 6-4, he has the frame to develop into an innings-eating, mid-rotation arm.” Mejia appears to be a pitcher I want to play on and this is a good spot to do it.
Akin has potential but his profile in the minors and in his brief stints in the majors suggests he doesn’t have the pedigree to notch any real staying power in a rotation. The Indians bats have found their groove recently and although the O’s recent victories against the Twins were a good look after a long slump, Cleveland has the pitching and players to out-class Baltimore. I expect “The Land” to get a W today in the first game of this series.
Rays win (-135), 1.5 units: The Rays broke out of their slump against the Yankees and secured a win to take a 8-5 lead on their divisional rival, which bodes well for their confidence and attitude heading into Friday. Surprisingly, the Rays haven’t performed as well against the bottom dwelling AL West Rangers this year. After a game one win against Texas, Tampa fell in 3 straight contests in their first series; all were by margin. One of those losses had Josh Fleming (2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP over 45.1 innings) on the mound, Tampa’s starter today, but the previous let-down certainly wasn’t his fault. Fleming handled himself well against the Rangers, allowing only 4 hits and 1 run over 5.1 innings in his first start of the season. Thanks to a big 7th inning with Chris Mazza pitching in relief for Tampa, the Rangers snagged that game 5-1 back in mid-April. I feel better about the Rays’ chances today. Ryan Yarbrough pitched 9 brilliant innings against the Yankees yesterday and spared Tampa’s bullpen from any time on the dirt. Kyle Gibson (2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 60.1 innings) has been Texas’ most steady pitcher this season but he’s due for some negative regression. The 33 year old’s solid numbers usually don’t hold up as the season progresses, which is especially true now that he’s beyond his prime. Gibson’s 3.23 FIP and 4.02 xFIP, along with a decreasing LOB rate (79.9%), suggest that he’s due for some setbacks in the near-future. I like the Rays in a good spot after a nice win to capitalize on a Rangers’ team that can’t find a W in their last 9 games.
Dodgers win (-130), 1.5 units: May I go on a brief rant? Thanks. We lose a lot of money in sports betting because of our internal biases. Unless you’re a fan, franchises like the Lakers, Chiefs, Patriots, Yankees, Dodgers, and other elite teams of recent memory tend to get the shaft from most of us when we peruse our daily betting slates. This is also true of superstar athletes in solo sports like tennis, boxing and MMA. Who wants to bet on Floyd Mayweather? Who actually wants to take Serena for the 1000th time to win a tournament? Let’s shoot for the value picks, right? Let’s go for the underdogs.
Most of us have an underdog mentality because we’re underdogs in life. Unless you’re born into the 1% of American’s absurdly wealthy, the majority of sports bettors are trying to get an extra buck to further support their dreams of success. This is a perpetual and often haunting reality in a dog-eat-dog world. And it has us ignoring opportunity. Why am I making this point? Because many of us are constantly losing money we could gain if we could destroy these mental biases and just wager where based on value, even if it means betting on those heavyweight teams. Case in point, the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.
They may not win Friday, this is no “I guarantee” speech, but I think most people would agree that the Dodgers are a better ballclub than the Atlanta Braves. That’s saying a lot considering how loaded Atlanta is on offense and especially with their recent additions on the mound. A team like LAD, who was projected to win 102.5 games this year, is easy to discount as we look for + money angles throughout this volatile MLB season. I think today is a good spot for them and, because they’re facing a fellow elite, we’re getting a little discount on the wager.
Julio Urias (3.61 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 2.98 FIP, 3.24 xFIP over 67.1 innings) has a profile very similar to Ian Anderson (3.27 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 55 innings). The difference is Urias’ numbers are a little inflated after his poor showing last time out against San Francisco. Maybe Urias lets down his guard when he’s not as intimidated or cautious about an opponent, but the Giants scored an uncharacteristic 11 runs against the Dodgers in late May, 7 of which came at the permission of Urias. Allowing 11 hits and a homerun over 5 innings in his last start, the 24 year old leftie will look to reset his command today. The Braves are a talented offense but Freeman still hasn’t caught fire and the loss of Ozuna isn’t going away any time soon. When they face above-average pitching, the Braves can really get in trouble. I trust the Dodgers and a fired up Urias to get the job done today.
Angels win (-175), 1.75 units: The Angels bats’ seem to have only two modes of operation: white hot or ice cold. Of course the absence of Mike Trout recently doesn’t help but still, this is an offense that should be putting up more consistent numbers on a more consistent basis. But that’s okay– tonight the Angels get the Shohei Ohtani boost. Ya know, the “I’m the dude who leads my team in homeruns and batting average, and oh yea that’s right I’m also a pretty elite pitcher this year” kind of boost. The 26 year old phenom from Japan has a 2.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 50 strikeouts over 36.1 innings. One day after an embarrassing let-down loss at home against their AL west foe, one who actually boasts a better record than the home team, the Angels are looking for redemption against Seattle tonight and I love the boost Ohtani gives them. Right hander Robert Dugger (6.23 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 17.1 innings), the 25 year old three year starter who’s struggled to find his footing in the majors, seems to be regressing again in 2021. I trust Ohtani and positive regression from LAA’s lineup. Go Halos!
