We’re 10-7 this week in MLB betting and there are plenty of opportunities to win more today. Let’s keep it rollin’– happy weekend, people!
White Sox -1.5 (-120), 1.2 units: We’ve seen what the White Sox can do against left-handed pitching and they haven’t slowed much. Chicago’s bats are hitting a healthy .835 OPS and own a .478 slugging percentage and .278 batting average. Leftie Tarik Skubal (4.59 ERA, 1.45 WHIP over 49 innings) gets the nod today for Detroit and he’s anything but unhittable. Lucas Giolito (3.73 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.54 xFIP) still sports a solid profile and should be able to limit a pedestrian Tigers’ lineup that hasn’t found their bats yet against their AL Central foe. The Sox by margin, yet again, sounds right to me.
Astros win (-105), 1.5 units: Ross Stripling (5.11 ERA, 1.38 WHIP over 37 innings) has a lot on his shoulders today after his Blue Jays got a fresh whipping at home against Greinke and the Astros last night. Using a ton of relief support, Toronto’s bullpen got blasted for 10 runs in the final 4 innings, granting Houston a blowout 13-1 win. The Astros lead the season series 3-1 and all their wins have come by margin. Today it looks like that could be the case again. With a tired crew of relievers backing up Stripling, Houston’s starter Jose Urquidy (3.02 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over 50.2 innings) comes into this contest feeling confident. Allowing only 3 runs and only 13 hits in his last 4 starts against good hitting teams, two of which were 7 inning outings, Urquidy is showing a really steady command and seems to be settling into his prime. The Astros have won the last 5 games Urquidy has started and I think they snag another one today.
Indians/Orioles first 5 under 4.5 (-120), 1.5 units: Along with the first inning bringing no runs (hint, cough), I love the first half of this ballgame going under. Aaron Civale and John Means are similar in that they have subtle command flaws at times but rarely allow an opposing offense to explode. Civale will allow more contact than Means but usually excels at limiting runs. His last effort against Toronto was a let-down so I look for a strong showing from him today. Means has regressed a little, back to his average in many categories, but still flexes an incredible 98.6% LOB rate and BABIP (.188). I expect a low scoring affair in this contest and since I trust the bullpen’s less, I’ll stick to the first 5.
Giants win (-166), 1.66 units: This is another play on Kevin Gausman (6-0, 1.40 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 2.20 FIP over 70.2 innings), in Gausman we trust, because I just love his profile so far. When there are sell-signs on a pitcher putting up good numbers it should be obvious, but a slew of Gausman’s indicators (0.51 HR/9 innings, 89.5% LOB rate, 6.2% HR/FB ratio, 2.23 BABIP) are just so steady and impressive that we can’t pull the “negative-regression” card just yet. The long-time minor league ace Kohl Stewart gets another call-up start for Chicago today. The 26 year old has a ton of potential and some stints in the majors with Minnesota. He devolved a bit between 2018 and 2019 but looks to regain trust from his new ballclub in his second start this year. While he has upside, I trust Gausman more and since both bullpens have been worked, I need the side with a pitcher who I’m confident can take us to 7+ innings. I’m on the Giants.
Padres (-105), 2 units: The Padres are the better overall team here and with two aces of this caliber on the mound, I just trust their bullpen and lineup way more than New York. Jacob deGrom rarely gets the run and rotation support he deserves and this feels like one of those let-down spots again Saturday. At a discounted price, I have to take advantage of this opportunity to play on San Diego. They won’t be intimidated by this level of pitching or competition coming from the loaded NL West.
