What a busy busy day of sports betting — baseball, basketball, UFC and the Derby, let’s go! Onto my Saturday picks in the major leagues:
Tigers win (+195), 1 unit: There’s inherent value here on the Tigers. As we predicted, the Yankees had their way with Detroit last night with Cole on the mound and a horrible rotation-plan for Detroit. One really good thing about Spencer Turnbull, the Tigers’ starter today, is he’s been elite at preventing homeruns his entire career. In 4 years and and 47 games pitched, he’s only allowed an average of 0.635 homeruns per 9 innings. Last year that average was down to 0.32, which is exceptionally good. A team like the Yankees, so reliant on big whacks and balls soaring beyond the fence, could be humbled after yesterday’s easy win. I like a sprinkle on Detroit to stun the Yankees in Brooklyn.
Marlins/Nats over 8.5 (-105), 1.5 units: I’ve been getting stymied by my total plays lately but again, I can’t help but make this an automatic over spot. Both of these ballclubs have found their bats recently and Paul Campbell (MIA- 8.22 ERA over 7.2 innings) and Patrick Corbin (WAS- 10.47 over 16.1 innings pitched) are extremely hittable. After a low-scoring pitching affair in game 1, look for more points in this one.
Twins -1.5 (+150), 1 unit: You may want to take a shot on Minnesota. The Twins need to keep winning and were happy to get a first game blowout over the surprising Royals last night. The Twins bats have woken up too, scoring 9 runs and 10 runs in their last two outings. According to TeamRankings, the Twins have the worst luck in MLB– guess who has the best luck? Kansas City. Danny Duffy (0.39 ERA over 23 innings) has looked elite thus far for Kansas City but maybe this is the game where his luck runs out. He’s allowed plenty of hits; they just don’t turn into runs. I’d bet on the Twins winning by margin at home and staying white hot behind the plate.
Red Sox -1.5 (-120), 1.5 units: The Rangers are below average against left-handed pitchers (.221 team average), which isn’t something I see when I research that metric very often, and Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS- 3.52 ERA over 23 innings) has held a solid command so far this year. Jordan Lyles (TEX- 6.75 ERA over 24 innings) has not. The Red Sox are the better team in every way, with considerably better bats, and they’re 9-2 on the road. This feels like a great setup for a win by margin.
Dodgers win (-125), 2 units: Two superb pitchers in Dustin May (LAD- 2.53 ERA over 21 innings) and Brandon Woodruff (MIL- 1.55 ERA over 29 innings) face off tonight in Milwaukee. The Dodgers have seen better days and this game sets up well for the Brewers, but that’s exactly why I like LAD. The Dodgers can’t win this series but they could at least even it up and I love what Dustin May brings to the table. Woodruff has been exceptional but May’s velocity is elite, and it’s a young-gun-arm we just don’t see very often anymore. Three losses in a row just feels like too much to a mid-tier Brewers team and the Dodgers’ bats have to wake up sooner and later. I’ll take LAD.
Other Leans: Diamondbacks (-180), Giants/Padres under 7 (EVEN)
