Back at it after a day off from MLB and looking to get wins. As usual, I’m always looking for advantageous value so that you’re all spending less and winning more. Onto the picks!
Tigers win (-111), 1 unit and Royals/Tigers over 9 (-110), 2 units: Two separate bets. The Royals really need to get off the schneid and I was tempted to put a small bet on them for that reason alone, but I can’t do it with this pitching matchup. Spencer Turnbull (4.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 19 innings) takes the mount for the Tigers, who can’t seem to lose lately, while the Royals, who can’t seem to win, give the nod to left-hander Daniel Lynch. In 2 games/5.1 innings, Lynch recently allowed 11 hits and 11 runs in his only 2 starts. The Royals are not only struggling to score but they’re really hurting on the dirt. Their starters and bullpen has allowed 7 runs per game over their 10 game losing streak. That’s atrocious. Whether it’s a bullpen game or not (KC has one of their worst in MLB), I can’t imagine Lynch, who looks far from ready for the majors, and the KC rotation to hold off the Detroit offense again today, regardless of what Turnbull does or doesn’t do. I’m on the Tigers to stack up another win against a division foe.
Brewers/Cardinals under 6.5 (-110), 1 unit: This total is where it should be and it might not get close. Jack Flaherty (2.83 ERA, 0.94 WHIP over 41.1 innings) and Corbin Burnes (1.53 ERA, 0.55 WHIP over 29.1 innings) have been sensational thus far and although American Family Field isn’t typically giving to pitchers, lately these two ballclubs aren’t providing much offense. This is a trend I’m willing to chase and sometimes it’s really that simple– I’ll hit the under for only a humble 1 unit because, when things make sense in the majors, that’s often when the crazy hits.
Giants win (-145), 1.45 units: Anthony DeSclafani (2.40 ERA, 0.94 WHIP over 41.1 innings) has looked hittable recently after a blazing start to the season. Still, he’s whipping the rock via a healthy 94 mph fastball and reducing hard contact, allowing only 0.87 homeruns/9 innings. Twenty-six year old Wil Crowe (4.02 ERA, 1.34 WHIP over 15.2 innings) gets the call-up again for Pittsburgh today and so far he’s looked decent, holding teams under 5 hits in 3 straight starts. He’ll be hittable again today but he’s not the reason we like the Giants. The Pirates’ bats are still really struggling to make hard contact and produce points. They’re last-place in homeruns and at the bottom of MLB in runs, hits, and a slew of other offensive categories. That’s not a good recipe against a Giants’ team predicated on exceptional pitching from their starters, not to mention excellent showing from their relievers. In what should be another low scoring game, I’m on San Francisco.
Indians/Mariners under 7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Indians and Mariners meet for the first time this year in an interesting pitching matchup to start off the series. Zach Plesac (3.83 ERA, 1.03 WHIP over 40 innings), who’s looked sensational in his last 2 starts, gets the nod for Cleveland Thursday. Plesac hasn’t allowed a run in his last 2 games, limiting two of the best offenses in Cincinnati and Chicago (the White Sox version) to only 3 hits each over 13.2 total innings. I love that momentum heading into tonight against a Mariners team that’s been very limited at bat the past few weeks. The “no-no” from John Means started a streak where Seattle has only scored 3.3 runs per game over their last 6 contests. One positive note from Seattle may come from their some of their recent roster moves. The Mariners are calling up Jarred Kelenic, an outfielder and the #3 prospect in all of baseball, and up-starter Logan Gilbert, who “while he’s not ranked among the game’s five best prospects, none of the aforementioned prospect rankings have Gilbert listed any lower than No. 47 overall.” Gilbert is a 6’6″ 225 pound powerhouse and “has a mid-90s heater with three average or better secondary offerings, some of the best command of anyone on this list.” (via MLBTradeRumors.com) The Mariners need a feeling of rejuvenation and against a Cleveland unit not known for their offensive prowess, I love this matchup between 3 year starter Plesac and the young gun. I’ll take another under!
