We went 4-1 yesterday in MLB, putting us back in the groove and well over .500 on the year. It’s a happy Friday here at the Farley household– let’s get to the picks!
Giants -1.5 (+110), 1.5 units: All the value here lies on the Giants. Kevin Gausman (1.97 ERA, 0.88 WHIP over 45.2 innings) has been lethal at the mound for San Francisco, flexing a 95 mph fastball, leaving most of his hitters on base (87.2%) and doing a great job at holding off hard contact (0.79 HR/9 innings). The Pirates have been really struggling to make any type of contact, scoring only 2 runs the past 2 contests. We rode that angle yesterday to a win. Today a SF win by margin feels even more possible as the Pirates send out Miguel Yajure to the dirt for his second start of the season. The 23 year old from Venezuela struggled in his first showing, allowing 4 hits and 4 runs over just 4.1 innings against a bad offense at Detroit. The Giants won 3 straight and 4 out of their last 5 games and I don’t think they’ll be very tested this afternoon either. Go San Fran!
Angels/Red Sox under 9.5 (-115), 1.5 units: The Angels and Red Sox clash for game 1 in their first series of the year Friday night and I think this will be more of a pitcher’s duel than a typical LAA/Boston slugfest. Griffin Canning (5.19 ERA, 1.38 WHIP over 26 innings) gets the nod for LAA tonight and although he hasn’t been his best at times this young season, lately he’s found more command. He only allowed 1 run in each of his last 2 starts, one of those against the Dodgers, delivering 13 strikeouts and earning 2 wins. After starting the year allowing way too many homers, he’s also significantly improved in reducing hard contact. Boston’s Nick Pivetta (3.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 36.2 innings) takes the mound as Canning’s opposition Friday. Pivetta allows runners on base but he rarely invites the big whacks, holding opponents to only 0.49 HR/9 innings. The Angels and Sox are two of the best offenses in MLB, which is why the totals are always so high, but this feels more like an old fashioned game of chess at Fenway. Two solid pitchers will battle it out as both lineups eke out runs throughout the game. The value is on the under for me.
Orioles first 5 (+140), 1 unit and first 5 total under 5 (-110), 1.5 units: Two separate bets for me, but feel free to parlay. This is another play with built-in value. It’ll be a perfect day at Camden Yards (73 and sunny, low humidity), as the Yankees visit for the second time this season. New York owns the slight lead in the series so far (4-3), but Baltimore will look to resurrect some good pitching and more confidence behind their bats after two straight losses against the Mets. Baltimore’s starter Dean Kremer (6.23 ERA, 1.54 WHIP over 26 innings) won’t blow your mind with any of his numbers, but lately he’s showed some positive regression. Last time Kremer faced the Yankees he had his worst outing of the year, allowing 10 hits and 6 runs in just 4.1 innings. Since then his numbers have improved and he should have some extra motivation for today’s rematch after that bad performance in late April. Corey Kluber (3.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP over 35.1 innings) looks to be finally rounding into form, looking stronger and more comfortable as the season wanes on. Coming back from the types of injuries Kluber suffered in his arm isn’t easy, but the 35 year old has only permitted 5 runs over last 4 games and his strikeout numbers are on the rise. In his last start against Baltimore he allowed plenty of contact (6 hits) but held the Orioles on base, resulting in only 1 lone run for the O’s. The Yankees are streaky this year and after a loss to Tampa Bay last night, maybe this is the start of another slump. The Orioles know the Yankees well and they’re not intimidated. This game should be close– I’ll take the O’s and the under in the first half of play.
Reds (-110), 2 units: The bats were white hot last night at Coors field, resulting in 21 runs and a near Cincinnati comeback (the Rockies were up 10-0 late into the game and the Reds made it 10-8 in the 8th, Colorado sealed it later, winning 13-8). After that fine showing from Colorado’s offense, we’re getting Wade Miley (2.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP over 36 innings) at a reduced price against the shaky German Marquez (5.49 ERA, 1.65 WHIP over 39.1 innings). I like Marquez but every time I try and depend on him, especially if it’s at home, it seems he has one of those head-scratching games. The Rockies want Marquez as their ace and he puts out some electric performances here and there, but he’s not steady enough for me and the Reds are too good to let another opportunity pass them at Coors Field. I think Cincinnati lights it up today.
