Well the NBA regular season is officially over I finished at 207-152 overall, which rounds to a 58% win clip on the year in NBA picks. I’m not unhappy about that and now we can shift a little more focus on baseball as the NBA playoffs begin and we approach a long summer of major league action. Here are my picks for Monday:
Reds win (-137), 1.74 units: The streaky Reds head home after a long road trip and I’m sure they’re elated to be back in front of their fans at Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati’s season has been defined by some great offense and shaky pitching, leading them to long winning and losing streaks and plenty of volatility in between. Still a few games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central, the Reds will look to regain some steam after splitting the series with Colorado at Coors Field in their last affair. They send Sonny Gray (3.55 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 25.1 innings) to the mound today, who has looked sharper in his last few starts. Over his last 3 games (16.4 innings), Gray has only allowed 3 earned runs and he’s struck-out 24 over that same span. He’ll look to demonstrate the same consistency today. The Giants just tied their series in Pittsburgh and now extend their road trip as they head to Cincinnati Monday. San Francisco will send Logan Webb (4.74 ERA, 1.45 WHIP over 38 innings) to the dirt, perhaps their least dependable starter. Webb has had a few great moments, including a relief assignment where he held off the Reds for one inning back in mid-April, but he’s not a pitcher the Giants can count on. The Giants certainly have the bullpen and savvy to overcome Webb’s faults but I like this spot better for Cincinnati. Off a long road trip and finally back at home, with a top 5 offense that should present plenty of problems for Webb, I think Gray can limit runs and Cincinnati can pull away. A run line might be worth a small play too at +145 and I would also lean over the total (8, -110).
Yankees first five -1.5 (even), 1.5 units and Run in First Inning? Yes (+115), 1 unit: This is a big matchup issue for the Rangers early and probably for the length of this contest. Jordan Lyles (RHP, TEX- 6.63 ERA, 1.61 WHIP over 38 innings pitched) has been consistent in one area this year: allowing contact. At 4.75 innings per start, Lyles has allowed an average of 5.75 hits and 3.5 runs every game he’s been at the mound. Even worse for today, he’s allowed 2.13 HR/9 innings. The Yankees’ bats have woken up lately and Aaron Judge is coming off a red hot weekend where he hit 4 homeruns in 3 games at Camden Yards. Gerrit Cole (1.37 ERA, 0.68 WHIP over 52.2 innings) gets the nod for NYY Monday and he’s been the anti-Lyles so far this season. Cole has been a workhorse for the Yankees, flexing a 0.86 ERA away from the Bronx, a velocity upwards of 97 mph on his fastball and limiting hard contact at 0.51 HR/9 innings. The Rangers are a mid-tier offense and an inferior team, limping into tonight with a 6-game losing streak. I expect the Yankees to get hits early and often against a vulnerable Lyles and Cole to have little to no issue limiting a Rangers team that’s averaged 2.83 runs on their 6-game slump. Go Yanks!
Dodgers -1.5 (even), 1.5 units: The Dodgers were on a real freefall at the start of May, losers of 8 out of 10 ballgames and perplexed by their output. But good teams with the immense amount of talent the Dodgers have are tough to keep down. LAD has now won 4 out of their last 5 contests, including 2 straight series wins against Seattle and Miami, and they move on to their first series against their NL West rival in the Diamondbacks at home tonight. The Dodgers bats have come alive again recently, averaging 6.2 runs per game over their last 5 matchups. The Diamondbacks are experiencing different trends. Arizona has lost 4 out of their last 5 games and aren’t scoring, averaging only 3.2 runs per game over that span. Walker Buehler (3.45 ERA, 0.90 WHIP over 44.1 innings) will man the dirt today for LAD in the late slot tonight and he’s a positive regression candidate for me. The 26 year old 5th year starter carries more responsibility with Dustin May out for the season and lately he’s struggled to limit contact, allowing 27 hits and 15 runs over his last 5 outings. Not putrid, but Buehler is better than that and he’ll look to recalibrate his arm and those statistics tonight. He’ll oppose Madison Bumgarner (4.12 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 43.2 innings), who leads the struggling Diamondbacks into the start of a 7 game road trip. Bumgarner has looked as elite as ever at points this season, though at times he’s struggled to hold a steady command. If the Dodgers’ bats are able to muster some hits early, I think this one could get ugly. I like the spot, momentum, and talent better on LAD’s side tonight so I’ll take a win by margin for even money.
