Our leans went 3-1 yesterday (follow me on Twitter if you don’t already), but ultimately we took a day off and I don’t count leans into my record so alas, we’re back and looking for more official wins today. Onto my picks! P.S.- check out my NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Preview podcast released yesterday (Western Conference will be out today).
White Sox win (-140), 1.4 units and White Sox/Twins over 8.5 (-120), 2 units: Two separate bets. When there’s two pitchers I absolutely can’t trust and don’t see any signs of positive regression against two teams that are above-average at bat, it’s an automatic over for me. Minnesota’s lineup has been repairing itself over the last few weeks. Once near the bottom in many categories, they’re now a top 10 offense in runs, hits, batting average, and slugging %. Unfortunately that doesn’t always equate to wins, and the White Sox are responsible for many of those Ls, but they’re definitely delivering more behind home plate. The 34 year old right hander Matt Shoemaker (6.62 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 34 innings) gets the call today for the Twins. Among the many areas where Shoemaker needs to improve, he’s really struggled to prevent hard contact (2.65 HR/9 innings) and keeping hitters on base (66.7% LOB). I don’t love his chances today against a White Sox offense that may be the most consistent in baseball this year. The up and down Lucas Giolito (4.97 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 41.2 innings), Chicago’s 26 year old 5 year starter who stands at a mean 6’6″, is getting sent to the mound Wednesday and he’s still tough to figure out. He’s had a few exceptional showings this year, notably against the Indians and Royals (not that impressive), but always seems to flounder in the games that follow. He suffers the same command setbacks as Shoemaker. The White Sox have the better team and bats so I’ll give them the edge, but I love the over more than anything here.
Giants win (-125), 1.5 units: I think the ol’ ballclub from San Francisco just may get another series win against Cincinnati. One of the hottest hitting teams in MLB looks awfully vulnerable when they line up against a team with elite pitching like the Giants, and it looks like the Reds may get strong-armed again here today. Wade Miley (3.69 ERA, 1.05 WHIP over 39 innings), a regression candidate for me, is up today for Cincinnati. I think he’s overperformed. According to a blog on FanGraphs, Miley’s “zone rate isn’t up, so the increased walks are based on players chasing more. In 2012, when he pitched really well and avoided walks, his zone rate was 45.8% and this year it is 32.6%. He doesn’t get a ton of swinging strikes, he isn’t getting that many called strikes (his CSW is 25%, which is below league average), and I think this is all smoke and mirrors.” Zone rate is the percentage of pitches that go inside the strike zone as opposed to being deemed actual strikes. Of course when you deliver a no-hitter like Miley did 2 weeks ago your stock tends to rise, but his velocity has been decreasing and he got a tad exposed at Coors field in his last outing. I’m fading him today. Kevin Gausman (1.84 ERA, 0.84 WHIP over 53.2 innings) is on the dirt for San Francisco and he’s been ultra-consistent this year. Averaging 6.65 innings per game, in 8 starts there was only one contest where he allowed more than 1 run. You guessed it– it was against the Reds. While that might turn some away, it turns me towards. I love Gausman in a revenge spot here today and for another Giants win.
Nationals (-155), 2 units: The Nationals have gone cold at Wrigley Field and their bats are suffering from the same issue as always– failing to turn good contact into points. Of course Lester and Corbin aren’t the best pitchers to provide support, and that’s a big reason why Chicago leads this series 2-0, but I think we can count on Max Scherzer to deliver today. Jake Arrieta (4.10 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 37.1 innings) mans the dirt for Chicago Wednesday and it’s the same story as always for the ol’ wily vet. Arrieta has seen some run value improvements (-2.5 on the year) but overall he’s the same guy, displaying a FIP that’s clearly higher than his ERA (5.14), allowing above average hard contact (1.69 HR/9 innings), and demonstrating mediocre to slightly above-average stats in other areas. Max Scherzer’s (2.10 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 90.6% LOB over 51.1 innings) recent start, where he zipped 14 strikeouts in the Bronx, shows that the 36 year old still has plenty left in the ol’ cannon. The Cubs’ bats have been advantageous and consistent lately but they’re due for a let-down game. The Nats have lost 3 of their last 4 and will want to avoid dropping to 0-3 in this series; they need this win more. I’m all over Natitude!
Cardinals -1.5 (-105), 2 units: This is a rather square pick but so be it. How could I not love Flaherty in this spot? The Cardinals ace, Jack Flaherty (2.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP over 47.1 innings), has a 7-0 start to 2021 and continues to be a workhorse for his team. As reliant as ever on his four-seam and slider, some posit that Flaherty is a glaring negative regression candidate. I don’t see it that way. What I should say is while that may be an issue as the season wanes on, I don’t see it being an issue today. Flaherty’s style allows him to control games, especially against bad offenses, and to manipulate hard contact. No team in MLB is worse in runs per game or slugging % than the Pittsburgh Pirates. Forget about Trevor Cahill (5.97 ERA, 1.41 WHIP over 34.2 innings), who gets the start today for Pittsburgh, the Pirates bats are cold and they’ve been owned by St. Louis, losing all 4 games this season by more than 1 run (by margins of 4, 7, 3, and 3 to be exact). Better offense, better pitching, better team: I expect another big win from the Cards at home.
