We went 4-1 in MLB betting yesterday, can’t hate that, and as we move and groove towards summer we’ll have more ammunition and more information to fire away on great angles. It’s a smaller slate on Thursday– let’s get to the picks!
Yankees win (-118), 1.5 units: I’m counting on some negative regression today for Texas’ Dane Dunning (4.34 ERA, 1.42 WHIP over 37.1 innings) and some positive regression for the Yankees’ Domingo German (3.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 37.1 innings). Although German has allowed some hard contact and runs in a few of his starts, in general he keeps hitters off base and limits their scoring. His WHIP speaks to that. Dane Dunning has a rather abysmal LOB mark (67.7%), Ground Ball rate (55.6%) and an unimpressive velocity yet somehow has managed to keep his opponents from slamming a ton of deep balls. The Yankees have to be pumped after Kluber’s no-hitter yesterday, he appears to be back to his old form, and New York is certainly capable of smacking anything Dunning brings to the mound Thursday.
Angels win (-110) Game 1, 1.5 units: The LA Angels look to keep improving a rotation that needs it. With an AL worst 5.33 collective ERA, the Angels have recently inserted Alex Cobb (5.48 ERA, 1.69 WHIP over 21.2 innings) and Griffin Canning into their rotation, both of which bring a nice arsenal capable of giving LAA’s starters more rest and their defense more command. According to FanGraphs, “Cobb’s strikeout rate has nearly doubled from last year’s 16.8% as he’s gotten more swings and misses from his curveball,” and he’s done a much better job at preventing hard contact this year, “(Cobb’s) barrel rate has dropped from 9.5% to 3.4%, and his hard-hit rate from 48.2% to 37.3%.” The Twins don’t scare me at bat these days, either. Although they’ve improved in number of different categories recently, they’re inconsistent and seemingly incapable of taking advantage of prime opportunities (yesterday’s game against Giolito was a great example of that). Lewis Thorpe (4.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP over 10 innings), the 6’1″ 25 year old leftie, takes the mound today for the Twins as he gets another call-up and another shot to prove his worth. I don’t know too much about Thorpe but I know he leans a little too much on an average four-seam fastball and he’s hittable, granting multiple runs every time he’s taken the mound. I’m on the Angels here in a good spot, at home, looking for redemption after blowing their last series against the Indians.
Red Sox win (+114), 1 unit: This is a simple handicap. Nick Pivetta (3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP over 42.2 innings) has provided me with quite a few wins this year and although Steven Matz (4.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP over 42 innings) looked solid in the early going, but he’s been exposed recently, allowing 32 hits and 17 runs in his last 5 starts. Boston has the better offense and they looked mighty healthy yesterday. At + money, I’ll take the Red Sox to grab a series win here.
