A 3-0 day makes us 7-1 the past 2 days, 9-3 on the week! Feeling locked into MLB and ready for more wins– Happy Friday people!
White Sox win (-110), 2 units: If Giolito and some of the White Sox non-aces keep pitching like they have been, Chicago is going to be a real problem this year. Already boasting one of the best and most consistent offenses in MLB, the White Sox take their talents to the Bronx to face the legendary Yankees Friday night. Carlos Radon (5-1, 1.47 ERA, 0.87 WHIP over 37.2 innings) got whacked in his last start but that doesn’t deter me. The Sox ace has been consistent and commanding all year and I think he can limit a Yankees lineup that’s over-reliant on the deep ball. The Yankees are starting leftie (alert!) Jordan Montgomery today (4.75 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 41.2 innings), one of the more hittable and vulnerable starters of NYY’s rotation. You probably already know what the White Sox do to lefties and we’re getting the visiting team at a nice, low number. That’s sneaky but I’ll chase it– I trust the White Sox bats and Radon to get a W.
Nationals -1.5 (-105), 1.05 units: Stephen Strasburg (6.30 ERA, 1.60 WHIP over 10 innings) will return to the mound Friday as he takes on the Baltimore Orioles and Jorge Lopez (6.35 ERA, 1.41 WHIP over 34 innings). I’m choosing to ignore Strasburg’s early numbers. The 32 year old long-time Nationals star clearly wasn’t right to start the season and he’ll look to redeem himself against a very beatable opponent. I love what the O’s have brought to the table so far, both in pure numbers and how they attack the game, but this just feels like the table is set for a Strasburg win. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Nationals are “sitting 18th in each of ERA (4.41), SIERA (4.19) and strikeout minus walk rate (14.7 percentage points).” Considering how historically lethal the Washington rotation has been, that’s definitely a disappointment. Fedde is out of the rotation temporarily anyway since getting tested positive for COVID-19, so this opens up a nice window for Strasburg to come to the rescue. Lopez has been consistent in that he lacks command. The 28 year old righty is allowing 2.12 HR/9 innings and has a subpar 66.2% LOB rate. The Nationals bats aren’t always accountable but with Strasburg back, at home against a below-average thrower, this feels like a win by margin. I’m on the Washington run line.
Diamondbacks win (+133), 1 unit and Diamondbacks/Rockies over 11 (-125), 1.5 units: Two separate bets but not a bad parlay! I love playing on big scoring at Coors Field and I like playing it even more when German Marquez (5.56 ERA, 1.68 WHIP over 45.1 innings) is on the mound. Over 6 starts at home, Marquez has allowed 5.5 hits and 3.3 runs per game over 29.2 innings. Considering Coors Field is that terrible? No. But it’s not great for the team’s expected ace. The Diamondbacks aren’t an elite offense but they have averaged 4.3 runs in 3 games in Denver, though one of those games drastically drops that number since Arizona laid a big goose egg against Senzatela. Seth Frankoff earns his second start in a tough spot tonight. He looked solid in his first outing, allowing 2 hits/2 runs over 4 innings against the talented Nationals. The 6’5″ 215 pound globetrotter has a ton of potential and could earn a longer stay in the Diamondbacks rotation if he shows confident command on the road in this hitter’s stadium. Both of these ballclubs come into tonight on long losing streaks (Arizona has lost 5 in a row and 8 of their last 9, while Colorado has lost 5 in a row and 7 out of their last 10). Something’s gotta give. I’ll put a unit on the underdog and for another day of big below the great Rocky Mountains.
