This is an abbreviated article today but I definitely see value in a few games. After falling back to earth last night at 1-3, our record is 10-6 this week. Let’s get some Ws.
Diamondbacks (-121), 2 units: Madison Bumgarner has redeemed his rough start to the season and looks to be back in true form. The team reported a groin injury for their ace earlier this week but also said it won’t be a concern. That’s something to watch, but I still trust Bumgarner over Anthony Senzatela, who last time out had a dominant performance against Arizona. Senzatela isn’t good enough to maintain dominance against any team and this is a good revenge spot for the D-Backs after an uninspiring performance by their offense last night, much to the delight of German Marquez. I’m hammering AZ.
Orioles (+138), 1.5 units: This is a fade on Jon Lester, who’s been on the decline for years and as you probably already know from reading my posts– I love fading him. Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmerman hasn’t been electric by any means but he’s young and talented and capable of holding off the volatile Nationals offense. I see the Orioles taking advantage. Baltimore isn’t an exceptional offense overall but they’re top 10 against lefties and that should give them should extra confidence today. The value is on the O’s.
Rangers first five +0.5 (+105), 1 unit: I think the Astros will probably win this full game but this first 5 is too good to pass on. The Rangers are not a good team but Jordan Lyles, as today’s article at ATS.io discusses, is not loved by the betting community. Lance McCullers is. I’m a McCullers fan myself, but the inconsistency of the Astros’ bats and the potential of Lyles is enough for me to sprinkle a unit here. Lyles lacks command but he’s had some exceptional starts, including a recent little flex when he had 6 strikeouts and only allowed 1 run over 6 innings against the Yankees. Taking a shot on Texas here.
Red Sox (-125), 2 units: Boston has the better offense, their bullpen is fully rested after a nice day off yesterday via the blowout, and Nathan Eovaldi’s profile is better than the stats show. I’d trust him over Phillies’ upstart young gun Spencer Howard, who has all the tools but lacks the experience at 24 years old (and it’s shown in 3 short starts thus far).
