Yesterday was “one of those days” in MLB betting. Virtually all of my picks looked good in the early going and then they all turned to shit. Baseball is a game of details and tremendous volatility, especially over such a long season. The best pitchers and the best teams don’t always win, as we’ve seen, nor do they need to always win. In handicapping that means a ton of well-informed bettors with great angles are left with wages that push or lose, while trigger-happy fools win and think they’re onto something. It’s frustrating, but just like anything else it all reverts back to the mean eventually. Let’s hope some of that positive regression begins today because I see plenty of opportunity. Onto the picks!
Marlins win (125), 1.5 units: The Phillies have hit a lull. Losers of now 4 of their last 5 games and starting a long winding road trip where they take on 3 different teams away from Philadelphia, the Phillies will look for a turnaround today. Unfortunately they have to contend with Trevor Rogers (1.74 ERA, 1.05 WHIP over 51.2 innings), who’s 5th overall among pitchers in ERA. Rogers owned the Phillies in his last start, holding them to only 5 hits and 1 run in 7.2 innings. Because of all the talent they have in their rotation, Miami is a dangerous team when they find their bats. Lately they’ve performed better. Averaging 4.4 runs over their last 5 games, they’ll hope to keep their production going Monday against Philadelphia’s Zach Elfin (3.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 57.1 innings). Eflin allows plenty of contact, his four-seam velocity (93.4 mph) and ground ball rate (42%) is decreasing, and he has real issues with command. The Phillies have the better offense and we could see some negative regression eventually for Rogers; I just don’t see this being the spot. Miami shouldn’t need to score much with their ace on the mound and the Phillies are cold and in a tough spot– I’ll take the home team.
Mets win (-140), 2 units: This stat alone may be worth betting on the Mets: New York is 11-4 at home and the Rockies are 2-17 on the road. That’s right: 2 wins and 17 losses. And this game is in Queens, in case you didn’t connect those dots yet. Disparity in offensive stats between two ballclubs can be hard to debunk but it’s not very difficult in this case. Colorado can slug and score plenty at Coors Field, it’s what their known for, but away from Coors they’re just not the the same team. The Rockies have slammed 37 homeruns at home and only 9 on the road. Away from Denver they’re batting .209, they’re slugging .300, and they have 1/3 the RBIs (50 away, 154 at home). They’ve played 9 more games at Denver but still, that’s bad. I won’t get into the pitching dual here; Gomber and Peterson have pretty similar profiles (although Gomber’s ground ball rate is concerning). The Mets just lost a frustrating series against the Marlins and they’re at the beginning of a long stretch at home against Colorado and Atlanta. Colorado is surely the more winnable series and I expect New York to take advantage, starting tonight.
Orioles win (-112), 1.5 units: Damn right I’m betting on John Means again. Means (1.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP) finally looked human against the Rays in his last start, allowing 6 hits and 4 runs in just over 6 innings of play. I expect him to look better today. Means still commands the 3rd best WHIP in MLB and a top 5 ERA, not to mention an incredible LOB percentage of 96.5%. Although we knew some of his elite numbers would see some negative regression, his rival is no match today. The Minnesota Twins and their reawakened bats will start Matt Shoemaker (6.08 ERA, 1.45 WHIP over 40 innings), who’s allowed a ton of hard contact and points in the early going. The Orioles have lost 6 games in a row and 10 out of their last 11 games. Their schedule is only getting more difficult, with series against the Twins twice, the White Sox, the Indians and Mets on the horizon. This is a big spot for Means to turn the ship around for Baltimore and I trust he can do it. Baltimore doesn’t have the offensive weapons of Minnesota but if they can limit the Twins’ bats they won’t need a superb game at home plate. I’ll take the O’s in a desperate spot.
