I see quite plenty of opportunity in the world of MLB today! Onto our Wednesday picks!
Athletics -1.5 (+110), 1 unit: Somehow the Mariners snagged 2 games from the Athletics in this series but I don’t see it happening tonight. The AL West leading Athletics will look to capture game 3 behind the arm of 27 year old James Kaprielian (1-0, 2.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP over 10.2 innings), who was just called up this year from Oakland’s minor leagues. The youngster has good size and solid command, with a 97.8% LOB percentage so far this season. He’ll look to keep a role in the Athletics’ rotation as he opposes Robert Dugger (4.15 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 13 innings), the 25 year old who was shipped from Miami to Seattle this year and given a fresh start. So far he hasn’t fared badly but his numbers are starting to regress and show signs of what he displayed in two previous years with the Marlins (he owned a 5.77 ERA in 2019 and a 12.66 ERA in 2020). Dugger should present the opportunity Oakland needs, while the Seattle bats should see some negative regression tonight (they still own the worst batting average in MLB). I’m on the A’s by margin in an inter-divisional game where motivation shouldn’t be an issue.
Rangers win (even), 1.5 units: The Rangers aren’t a team I play on often but I like their matchup today. Dunning (3.74 ERA, 1.34 WHIP over 43.1 innings) has better stats than Canning (5.56 ERA, 1.50 WHIP over 34 innings) in a number of key areas, including early inning splits, and the Angels bats aren’t known to maintain their momentum in the long-term. I trust Dunning to get the job done in LA today and I like it even more for + money.
Blue Jays win (+120), 1.3 units: This article from Fansided.com describes Alex Manoah and his potential better than I can. The 6’6″ beast who played triple A ball in Buffalo is a hot prospect who’s beat up on the Yankees in spring training before. The regular season in the Bronx is surely a different animal, but the Toronto bats came alive last night and we think Domingo German (3.05 ERA, 1.11 WHIP over 44.1 innings) is due for a little negative regression. After ripping through Texas in his last start, German has shown mostly really positive stuff and good command. He was exploited in his first start of the year, however, against this very same Blue Jays team. Toronto lacks no confidence at Yankee Stadium and their offense played comfortably ahead for the entirety of yesterday’s contest, with minimal use of their bullpen. I’m on the Jays to win again.
Red Sox -1.5 (+135), 1.5 units: The Red Sox are on a little offensive slump and have 2 straight losses while the Braves are on a tear, riding 4 straight wins and flexing a bunch of offensive prowess that started with that ridiculous 20 run game against Pittsburgh. To the rescue comes Nick Pivetta (3.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP over 47.2 innings), who I’ve enjoyed playing-on all year. Pivetta has been a stable piece for Boston; the Red Sox have only lost 1 game when he’s been on the mound. I don’t trust Drew Smyly (5.11 ERA, 1.32 WHIP over 37 innings) as far as I can throw him and I expect a renewed energy from Boston today. Give me the Sox by margin.
Dodgers -1.5 (+115), 1 unit: Trevor Bauer (5-2, 1.98 ERA, 0.77 WHIP over 63.2 innings) has been fantastic this season, while Luis Garcia (3.38 ERA, 1.10 WHIP over 40 innings) has been nothing but volatile and unpredictable. Those Dodgers bats looked very alive last night in a comfortable win that led to low-bullpen usage and an even more amped up LAD team, now winners of 8 straight. I don’t see Garcia and Houston preventing that tonight. Another big win for the Dodgers for me.
