I didn’t write an article yesterday but I put up official plays on my Twitter account and went 3-1– not too shabby! I found value across the board Friday. Let’s get to the picks!
Rockies/Pittsburgh under 7.5 (-115), 1 unit: It looks like this game might not happen today as rain approaches the Steel City, but when this matchup between Jon Gray and Mitch Keller does take place, I like a sneaky under. The Rockies really struggle to score on the road and the Pirates are among the worst offenses in baseball. Keller has been blasted by good offenses lately (the Reds, Braves, and underrated Royals’ games stand out), but he’s not as inept as the stats show. I expect positive regression from Keller and while I’m not a huge Gray fan, he’s exceeded expectations so far this season. The under is juiced here for a reason and I’ll lay it for 1 unit.
Brewers win (-105), 1.5 units: We’re getting the Brewers here at a discounted price and I get to fade Lester yet again. Naturally, I’m all over it. The regression of Jon Lester has been well documented so I won’t get into it in too much detail here but, in short, the wily vet is beyond his years and not the same mound commander he once was. And it shows. So far this season, Lester has permitted 3.55 walks and 1.42 homeruns per 9 innings. In case you’re unaware, that’s not good. He also has a consistently decreasing groundball percentage and velocity. The Brewers offense continues to have its struggles but lately they’ve produced more, earning 4 or more runs in 7 out of their last 10 games. Opportunity arises against Lester again today. The Brewers will start 33 year old starter Brett Anderson in this contest. While the 6’4″ big man has lost some of his luster and his velocity is suffering, his numbers are better than Lester in virtually every category. The Nationals, for all their improvement on offense, still struggle to produce the amount of points they should with all their talent. I like this recipe for Milwaukee. This is another weather-dependent game unfortunately but if it happens, I’m on the Brews!
Red Sox -1.5 (+110), 1 unit and Marlins/Red Sox over 8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Two separate bets. This game should happen (there’s only a limited chance of showers in Boston; damn East coast weather). The Marlins will give 26 year old Cody Poteet his 4th start Friday and so far the youngster has been very solid, although this spot is a bit more challenging. The first year pro boasts a 1.06 ERA and 0.71 WHIP over 17 innings but according to FanGraphs, “Poteet has four average to above average pitches that he uses and good command, but nothing he does is overpowering. He was helped out by a Mets lineup (in his last start) that featured Jonathan Villar leading off, Cameron Maybin hitting fifth and sleeper and the bust favorite name Johneshy Fargas. He likely won’t stick in the rotation long term, but he can be an interesting streamer in good matchups like this.” I think he gets exposed today. At 26, with so little experience and benefiting from advantageous spots, he’s bound for some negative regression. This feels like the right game for that. Red Sox starting pitcher Martin Perez won’t blow you away with his numbers but he’s stable and his velocity is still wicked (like a true Bostonian would say). Marlins’ bats can hit lefties well so I think they still get theirs, thus the over play, but I like the Red Sox to edge them late. Next to the Dodgers and Astros, Boston has the best offense in MLB and they’re overdue for an explosion. I’m on the home team by distance.
Yankees/Tigers run in first inning- YES (+140), .5 units: This is purely a play on value and it goes out to my man Sam at Canton Local– great bartender, sharp bettor, and he looovvveess to play these first inning bets! Gerrit Cole and Casey Mize should surely hold the bats at bay in the first inning, thus the reason for the “NO” being so juiced here (-185). But this is a potential let-down spot for the Yankees against one of the worst teams in baseball so I could see Cole and their defense not playing up to par. Also and more obviously, when you have the sluggers NYY does, this is worth a shot in the right spots. I’ll put a 1/2 unit on it and see what happens.
Diamondbacks (-133), 1.5 units: Arizona needs some rescuing so they’ll call Madison Bumgarner to the mound to take on the Cardinals in the second game of this series. The visiting Cardinals, a team predicated on solid pitching and clever coaching, serve up a nice meal for Bumgarner after he got walloped at Coors Field. Offensive explosion in Denver is a thing and we all know about it so it doesn’t worry me. I imagine it doesn’t thrill Bumgarner, though. The 31 year old had a few bad starts this year against good teams but he’s largely been sharp and steady, allowing 1 run or less in half of his starts (and for what it’s worth, his ERA would be drastically lower if it wasn’t for those 2 outings at Coors). The Cardinals will give 23 year old Johan Oviedo another run at the mound today and although the kid has tremendous velocity and great potential, he hasn’t found his footing just yet. Over the last 3 games (only 11 innings), he’s allowed at least 3 runs. Arizona is on a ROUGH 11 game losing streak and they need a savior. I expect Bumgarner to do the job and severely limit the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks’ mid-tier offense should be able to muster enough hits to control this game. Let’s get off the schneid, Arizona!
