Back writing MLB articles after a brief hiatus and focus on the NBA playoffs, which has boded well for me, and I see a few opportune spots in the majors today. I’m an Air Force veteran who’s lucky to have the time and freedom to bet pro sports and write these articles because of the ultimate sacrifice so many have made to protect this great country. Let’s not forget how good we have it. Happy Memorial Day all!
Twins win (-175), 1.5 units: The Orioles are on a 13 game losing streak and, like the Diamondbacks finally did last night, they’re desperately looking to get off the schneid. It’ll be nice weather all week in Baltimore so I’m sure they’ll get a W at Camden Yards soon; I just don’t like this spot for them. Minnesota won last time with Jose Berrios (3.67 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 56.1 innings) on the mound against this same Orioles team but I think this one might come easier today. The O’s have regressed on offense, averaging under 2 runs per game in their last 5 and making it routine to underperform when their bats are needed most. Baltimore’s rotation is already below-average and Jorge Lopez (5.80 ERA, 1.47 WHIP over 45 innings) might be at the bottom of that barrel, showing little command and little to get excited about this season. It’s a desperation spot for Baltimore but I’m on the Twins today to cash a 4th straight victory against the O’s.
Brewers -1.5 (-115), 2 units: This is a play on Corbin Burnes (2.33 ERA, 0.65 WHIP over 46.1 innings) and a fade on the Tigers after their freaky series win against the Yankees. Nothing gets your confidence higher than 3 straight wins over the Bronx Bombers, which is exactly what Detroit accomplished over the weekend. They’ll send the upstart 26 year old Tyler Alexander (4.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP over 20.2 innings) to the mound Monday against a Brewers team back home following a big series sweep of the Nationals. Alexander has looked decent so far but still struggles with allowing hard contact. Burnes, on the other hand, has played better than his numbers indicate. Burnes has a FIP and xFIP considerably lower than his ERA (1.06 and 1.065 respectively), his velocity is at an all-time high (96.5 mph four seam fastball), and his homerun ratio is one of the best in MLB over how many innings he’s pitched (0.39/9 innings). He’s someone I want to play on right now, especially against a pedestrian Tigers offense that’s no-doubt gained some pretentious vigor over the last few days. I’m on the Brewers to win big today.
Mets -1.5 (EVEN), 1.5 units: Lately the Mets have been really impressive, despite how many injuries they’ve incurred. Now I’m getting Jacob deGrom against Merrill Kelly fresh after the Diamondbacks got their first win in 2 weeks? Psh. This number should be more inflated. The Mets are famous for letting down their ace and underperforming when he puts on a show. Lately I’m not too concerned about that, though. New York is riding 4 straight wins and has risen to the top of the NL East standings. They’ve been streaky all year but I don’t think the victories stop today. Arizona’s rotation and bullpen has grossly underperformed lately and the Mets’ bats are showing a lot of confidence. Last night New York announced they’re activating Pete Alonso, key reliver Seth Lugo, and outfielder Kevin Pillar back into their lineup before the game today. This is a good setup for the Mets to assert themselves on a team that doesn’t know how to sustain wins. The Mets have also bested Arizona by margin in 2 out of their 3 wins against them in 2021. Go METS!
