Well we went 3-2 yesterday, not sad about that, although it probably should’ve been 4-1 but the Rockies couldn’t maintain margin in the 9th inning. That’s okay– the over in that game was one of my premium picks so at least that worked out. Let’s keep winning!
Astros first five (+175), 1 unit: This is an automatic play on the Astros for me. The Yankees are surging a bit but they’re not a better team than Houston. Playing in the Bronx with all the hate they’re getting can’t be an easy spot for Bregman and Altuve and other Astros’ players but eventually the pendulum swings and this might just be the spot. Gerrit Cole (1.43 ERA, 0.72 WHIP over 37.2 innings) is still the man and deserves all the credit he gets. The Yankees’ ace has looked sensational in his last two starts, allowing only 1 run and 7 hits in 13 innings. Earning base hits won’t be easy with Cole on the mound but it certainly serves as extra motivation. Down 2 games, the Astros can use all the motivation they can get. Lance McCullers (3.38 ERA, 1.05 WHIP over 26.2 innings) gets the call for Houston and although he can’t be compared to Cole, lately he’s looked fantastic. Fresh off a 7 inning game where he only permitted 3 hits and 0 runs against Tampa, McCullers will look to build off that performance today. He’s been especially good at preventing hard contact (0.34 homeruns/9 innings), which is integral against New York. I’ll side with McCullers and a Houston roster that needs to get-right in the first half of this contest. This is great value.
Red Sox -1.5 (-105), 1.5 units and over 8 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. That was an ugly finish for Boston last night and I expect some payback today against the very same Tigers. Detroit was due for a win, good for them, but I doubt the Red Sox will let the same thing happen today. Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 34.2 innings) returned to form last time out against the Rangers, allowing only 1 run in 6 innings, but he was coming off 2 bad games before that against the Mariners and White Sox (9 runs in 17 innings). Spencer Turnbull (4.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP over 16 innings) has been regressing since the season’s start and this isn’t the matchup for him to recalibrate. I foresee a ton of contact and points for Boston today, resulting in a an easy win by margin. These two teams are not in the same universe. Two susceptible pitchers forces my hand to the over, too.
Blue Jays/Athletics under 8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Mike Fiers (4.55 ERA, 1.30 WHIP in one 6 inning start) ran into a confident Baltimore team in his first start last Friday, allowing an average of 1 hit per inning and granting the Orioles 3 runs (2 homeruns) in the process. That’s okay and we’re not worried– the 35 year old veteran pitcher is dealing with decreased velocity and hip/back injuries that delayed his season, but we expect some positive regression for the 10 year starter today. Fiers has plenty left in the tank and I expect Oakland to handle their bullpen better today– they allowed 7 runs in the final 2 innings, inviting an easy win for the Jays. Hyun Jin Ryu needs little introduction (2.60 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2.96 FIP over 27.2 innings) and should have no issue commanding an Oakland offense that’s as inconsistent as it gets in the majors. Both of these teams are in the bottom third in runs per game. I see this as a pitcher’s duel so I’ll hammer the under.
Lean, Marlins win (-140): This is just a lean for me out of respect for Madison Bumgarner (5.58 ERA, 1.24 WHIP over 30.2 innings) and what he’s still capable of, but Pablo Lopez (2.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.13 FIP over 34.2 innings) has looked elite this year (disregarding his horrible opening start against Atlanta) and I love the way Miami is controlling this series at home.
