Diamondbacks @ Dodgers 10:10 PM ET
Madison Bumgarner has started this season on a great note with 7 games started sporting a 1.78 ERA. The walk and home run rates are a little higher than one would like to see at 3.56 and 1.19 per 9 innings respectively. The strikeout rate is respectable at 5.93 per 9 innings. Hitters are only batting .205 on balls put in play and only a 7.6% barrel hit rate. He’s only given up 2 or more runs twice this season. He’s been in this division a long time and has seen these Dodgers players a lot. He has handled Dodgers lineups fairly well giving up an average of about 2 runs per start since 2019.
Tony Gonsolin has also had a very solid start to the year starting 6 games with a 1.33 ERA. In 3 starts at home this year he’s only given up 1 run for an impressive 0.60 ERA. Walks have also been an issue for him though with a rate of 4.33 per 9 innings. A strikeout and home run rate per 9 innings at 7.67 and 0.33 are great numbers. Hitters are only batting .211 on balls put in play and getting the barrel on the ball 1.4% of the time. Gonsolin has only given up more than 2 runs on 1 occasion this year being in Arizona. I’m not too worried about that as his last couple starts have been pretty impressive going 5 innings against the Giants giving up 1 run, and 5 innings against the Pirates giving up nothing.
These two teams haven’t exactly been lighting up the first 5 inning box score recently against weaker pitching either. I would expect this to be a low scoring game through at least the first 5 innings. As long as these guys can keep the walks down, I don’t see them running into a ton of trouble.
Love the value here. I’m taking U4.5 F5 -105 for 1U. Best of luck if you come along for the ride!
