Following our big football/baseball weekend we’re now going to turn our attention on Tuesday to the MLB Playoffs.
My Analysis today turns Miller Park (Yes I know it’s not called that anymore, but when you live in Wisconsin that is what it will always be) in Milwaukee where the Brewers will host the Mets at 5:32 ET. The current line sits with the Brewers as the favorites at -147 with the Mets getting +127. The Over/Under is at 7.5 juiced to the under at -120. The roof will be closed.
These two teams just played each other this weekend with the Brewers taking two out of three. The Mets had to play two games yesterday and got the win they needed to sneak into the playoffs.
The Mets will start Luis Severino who has a 3.91 ERA and a 4.21 xFIP. K/9 sits a 7.96 with the BB/9 at 2.97. If he has his command his stuff is great with three plus pitches in his heater, cutter and slider. He has quality starts in four of his last five outings, and his K-rate has gone way up since the start of August.
The Brewers will throw Freddy Peralta and his 3.68 ERA and 3.93 xFIP. He has a 10.36 K/9 and a 3.52 BB/9. Peralta has struggled to get deep into games not having gone six innings in the entire month of September. He throws a lot of pitches, but most of them are effective with plus pitch values on his fastball, curveball and his top pitch his change-up.
These two teams put up very similar offensive numbers with the Mets finishing 9th in OPS and the Brewers in 10th. The Mets rely more on the long-ball while the Brewers manufacture runs through working more walks and stealing bases where they finished second in MLB with 217.
With the overall teams being so similar my handicap comes down to a few things. Five of the Brewers likely starting lineup has hit over .333 in their careers vs Severino. Only Jesse Winker, who returns to the lineup today from injury is over that number against Peralta for the Mets, but he does have 2 career long balls against Peralta. I give that advantage to the Brewers.
The second and most important piece of the handicap is that the Brewers didn’t have to play two games yesterday in Atlanta. Edwin Diaz has thrown 66 pitches over the last two days to get them into the playoffs and will likely be unavailable today. Phil Maton has gone the last three days and his status is up in the air. The Mets will likely only have one lefty available in the pen today as well with David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi starting Sunday and Monday. It is possible they let Jose Quintana go some today if needed, but unlikely.
Yes it is a spot play more than anything, but the value is right with the schedule the Mets have had.
Brewers -147 to Win 1 Unit. RL +155 Wager 1 Unit
