We’ve finally reached the end of the regular MLB season. It was a long six months, but now we have reached October. Regular Season record was 362-315-23, 53.4% Win Rate and 9.2% ROI. Post-season baseball is typically great drama, and offers some good opportunities to cash some tickets.
If you’ve been following my picks you know that I already own some futures shares. I am most heavily invested in the Brewers followed by the White Sox (And the Mets…oops). Looking at current Post-season odds there is some value on the board to take some shots and try to hedge later if the right chance presents itself.
Here are Current Odds:
To Win AL:
Astros +200, Rays +250, White Sox +300, Yankees +450, Red Sox + 700
To Win NL:
Dodgers +150, Giants +250, Brewers +300, Braves +550, Cardinals +800
To Win World Series:
Dodgers +350, Giants +500, Astros +500, Rays +600, Brewers +700, White Sox +700, Braves +1000, Yankees+ 1000, Cardinals +1400, Red Sox +1400
Lets be honest here, There is value on almost everyone except the Dodgers. High liability on them has their odds as the lowest even though they have to beat the red hot Cardinals in the wild card game. (I’ll be on The Cardinals at +175ish and the over 7.5 in that game) The Dodgers are gonna march out probably the best three pitcher playoff rotation in Scherzer/Buehler/Urias. That is a scary proposition for anyone in a full series, but in one game against Adam Wainwright, (Last 15 games 10-2 2.50 ERA 0.95 WHIP) I think its a toss up on the game and the value is on fading the futures bets for both teams. The cards are not built for the playoffs on offense or defense, but just destroyed everyone in September so you never know.
The winner would face the team with MLBs best record in the never flinch San Francisco Giants. This team wasn’t supposed to sniff the playoffs, but a bunch of overachieving veteran pieces came together and decided they wanted to compete. How this team just kept on winning I just don’t know. Wait yes I do, they had the 4th best OPS and 2nd best ERA in all of baseball. (Bullpen has a 2.99 ERA – Thats crazy!) Gausman, Webb, Desclafini and Wood will be underdogs every game if they play the Dodgers. They are a tough bet for me due to the potential Dodgers matchup, but they made it happen all year so I could see it in the post-season as well.
The other Wild Card features two titans of the sport in the Yankees and Red Sox. Gerritt Cole will get the ball for the Red Sox, but he has struggled some down the stretch with a 4.35 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in his last 7 starts. Nathan Eovaldi is Jekyll and Hyde. 3.86 ERA in his last 7 starts and a 1.26 WHIP. He was hammered last time out against the Yankees last Friday for 7 runs. Both these teams are capable of big offensive showings, but both lost season series to the team waiting for them the Rays. Neither staff is great, and while I could see either making it a series, I don’t like them going up against the Rays.
Those Rays are a little scary in that their playoff rotation is going to consist of three guys you never heard of before this year. Shane McLanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz. They have been very good though. The way the Rays do things I could see Game 4 featuring an opener or being a straight up bullpen game for them. The offense was 10th in MLB in OPS, so good, but not great. They’ve proven themselves two years in a row now even with an overhaul of the rotation. I think there could be some value here.
The NL 2-3 match-up features the Brewers vs the Braves. The Brewers boast the other big 3 rotation with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta. Josh Hader is almost lights out if they get a lead to the 9th, but the loss of Williams as their 8th inning man is huge. When he struggled early in the season so did the Brewers. Getting a lead to the 9th will be key for the Crew. The Brewers are only 20th in OPS, so getting some runs on the board to support those starters will also be key. The Braves are fairly consistent across the board. 8th in ERA. 8th in OPS. The Braves will have Morton, Fried and Anderson to start off the series. All three are good enough to keep them in the game, and the bullpen is solid if not flashy. I like the Brewers in a tight series here.
In the final AL match-up The AL favored Houston Astros take on the White Sox. Greinke is a shadow of his old self, and while some of the young guys have been solid like McCullers, Valdez and Garcia, I don’t see them hanging with the other big rotations. Plus their bullpen outside of Gravemen and Pressly hasnt been great, and I dont trust either of those guys that much. Astros are 2nd in OPS so it would be the bats that get them somewhere in the playoffs. The White Sox bring more excitement on the mound with Lynn, Giolito, Rodon and Cease. Their offense was 7th in OPS, but didnt get fully healthy until they got Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez back near the end of the season. It’s a scary top to bottom lineup. Their bullpen with Kimbrel and Hendriks closing is also solid. The Manager on the South Side knows a little something about winning in October also. White Sox will be my play in this series.
So what do I like? Well I already have shares of the Brewers and White Sox, and honestly I like the matchup for both teams in the first series so either of those would be plays for me for the League at +300. I also like the Rays at +250 in the AL. Same for the World Series grab the Rays at +600 and the Brewers and White Sox at +700. I could see sprinkling in a small amount on a Wild Card longshot if you’re feeling it here also. I am going to split up 2 units on the League bets and 3 units on the World Series bets.
Make sure for bets like these you use some sort of Dutching Tool so you can see what your return will be and invest the correct amount on each team to make these bets the most profitable when one comes in.
I can’t wait! Bring on some post-season baseball!
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