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The Miami Marlins and the Colorado Rockies continue their series Wednesday. The Marlins took game one in an offensive explosion. Miami enters this ball game with a 30-36 record overall and a home run line record of 16-14. The Marlins are also 35-31 overall this year on the run line. The Rockies are 30-38 with a 13-17 record on the run line while playing on the road. The Rockies are scoring a lot less runs while playing on the road this season, nearly 2 less runs compared to the number of runs scored at home. Colorado will be starting Chad Kuhl. The right hander owns these splits versus the current Marlins roster; 11.1% K%, .396 wOBA, .405 xwOBA, .333 AVG, .317 xBA, .629 xSLG and Kuhl also owns a 4.00 road ERA with a 1.58 WHIP on the road. Pablo Lopez will be starting for the home Marlins, Lopez owns a 4-3 record with a 1.07 WHIP. Miami certainly holds a large starting pitching advantage in today’s game. Lopez ranks in the top percentiles for hard hit%, exit velocity, wOBA, K%, BB%, Whiff%, and xSLG. At home this season, Pablo Lopez owns a 2-1 record with a 2.91 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.89 FIp and an opponent BA of just .192 inside of LoanDepot Park. When the Fish give way to Lopez, they also have the advantage in bullpens where their relievers rank 6th in MLB with a 12.3% swinging strike % in the past 30 days. Miami tends to play better at home, ranks 6ths in wOBA (.323) against righties and ranks 15th in home runs hit and Kuhl has a tendency to give up the long ball. Colorado, on the other hand, are 23rd in home runs and really struggle away from Coors, owning a 27th ranked 79 wRC+. The Rockies defense ranks 28th, 29th or 30th in all but TWO defensive categories while Miami ranks in the top 10 in most defensive metrics. Take MIA (-1.5)
The Boston Red Sox are playing host to the Detroit Tigers. This is the final game of three games in these two team’s series against one another. The Red Sox have won the first two and are going for a sweep. The Tigers enter today’s play with a 26-42 record. On the season, the Tigers own a 24-42 OU record and in their 27 road games this season, 19 of them have gone under the total (70.4%) . Boston enters today’s contest with a 38-31 record and an over-under tally of 27-38 on the season. The Red Sox are also 15-19-1 to the under while playing inside of Fenway. The left handed Tarik Skubal is starting for Detroit in this contest and he owns a 2.52 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, an on par .300 BABIP and 2.54 FIP while striking out 28.3% of hit batters. Skubal has been just as consistent in his recent outings (1.13 WHIP, .309 BABIP, 3.19 FIP). Michael Wacha is the Red Sox starter, Wacha owns 1.03 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 3.66 FIP while opponents are only hitting .185 against him at Fenway. The BOS starter owns the following splits versus the current DET roster; 21.9% K%, .285 wOBA, .336 xwOBA, .239 xBA, .226 BA, .400 xSLG. Detroit’s bullpen has ranked in the Top-10 in multiple advanced metrics over the L30 days while Boston is ranked 7th in total runs allowed this season. It would not be shocking to see a pitchers duel for at least 5 innings and Wacha cruising into the 7th seeing as Detroit’s offense ranks dead last in runs scored on the road. Take under 8.5
