Padres vs Diamondbacks -164 O/U 9.5
Game Overview
- Date: June 14, 2025
- Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Team Performance
- Diamondbacks: Currently on a five-game home win streak, with a 35-34 overall record and 19-17 at home. They boast the third-best team slugging percentage in MLB (.449).
- Padres: Holding a 38-30 overall record, they are 17-18 on the road. They have a strong 27-7 record when out-hitting opponents.
Key Players
- Diamondbacks:
- Corbin Carroll: 12 doubles, 8 triples, 20 home runs, 44 RBIs.
- Ketel Marte: 13-for-35 with 4 home runs and 9 RBIs in the last 10 games.
- Padres:
- Luis Arraez: 15 doubles, 3 triples, 3 home runs.
- Manny Machado: 17-for-42 with a double and 3 home runs in the last 10 games.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Pitching Matchup (ERA & FIP)
Starting Pitchers
- Padres: Ryan Bergert (1-0, 1.26 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 14.1 IP)
- Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen (4-8, 5.15 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 80.1 IP).
Advanced Metrics (FIP)
- Ryan Bergert (SD): His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 4.34 suggests his ERA is misleadingly low due to an unsustainable 96% left-on-base rate. He has walked six batters and struck out eight, indicating potential regression.
- Zac Gallen (ARI): His FIP of 4.90 aligns closely with his ERA, showing that his struggles are not just bad luck but a result of inconsistent pitching. His strikeout rate remains solid, but he has been vulnerable to hard contact.
Bullpen Comparison
- Padres: Ranked third in MLB with a 3.81 ERA, their bullpen has been a key factor in close games.
- Diamondbacks: Their bullpen has been less reliable, with a 4.00 ERA, struggling in late-game situations.
Weather:
None – Domed Stadium
Prediction:
The total on this game is sky high due to bad pitching. What’s even more glaring is that snake’s pitcher Zac Gallen has been just awful this year with a FIP of 4.9. It’s not like Padres Pitcher Ryan Bergert has been much better, but the Padres have the much better bullpen ranking 7th in FIP to 28th for the Snakes. I will give the overall hitting advantage to the Diamondbacks for now, but that should even out this price to be closer to pick-em rather than plus money for the Padres. Take the Dad’s the day before Fathers day!
Padres +141 – 1 star
