Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at Theoddsbreakers.com shortly.
I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.
NL East
Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals
New York Mets +120 / 94.5
Atlanta Braves +130 / 95
Philadelphia Phillies +300 / 88.5
Miami Marlins +2200 / 76
Washington Nationals +9000 / 59.5
New York Mets
I thought the Mets spent big last year, but Steve Cohen continues to show its all-in now as he gave out nearly $500 Million in Free agent contracts this off season. They let the oft injured Jacob Degrom walk away, but brought in Justin Verlander to replace him. If Verlander and Max Scherzer can stay healthy they will be one of the top 1-2 tandems in baseball at the top of a rotation. They also added Japanese import Kodai Senga who projects similar to Shohei Ohtani on the mound with a little less gas on the fastball. Senga also throws a pitch known as the “Ghost Fork” which leaves hitters baffled. Edwin Diaz is the premier closer in baseball at the back of the bullpen and the Mets added David Robertson to go with Adam Ottavino to get the ball to him. The lineup is anchored by Pete “Beef” Alonso, who should be ready for an MVP type season. Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte have speed at the top of the lineup setting the table for Alonso and Francisco Lindor. The two of them combined for 238 RBIs in 2022. The bottom half of the lineup features on base machine Jeff McNeil, but is average at best by MLB standards. Prediction 94-68
Atlanta Braves
The Braves lost Dansby Swanson to the Cubs, but keep producing solid MLB talent. They will now get a full season from the biggest trio of talent from last year Vaughn Grissom, Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider. Add that onto what should be a healthy version of Ronald Acuna Jr., and Ozzie Albies and this team is ready to compete for their 6th straight division title. The Sean Murphy addition gives the Braves the top catching duo in MLB. The rotation also looks to get healthy after having Kyle Wright, Charlie Morton and Max Fried all miss time. Raisel Iglesias will close, but outside of AJ Minter there are some question marks in the pen. I think the Braves have the superior lineup to the Mets, but I like the Mets rotation and bullpen better. I just couldn’t pick a winner here, its gonna take game 163. Prediction 94-68
Philadelphia Phillies
The Reigning MLB champs will be without superstar Bryce Harper for likely half the season as he recovers from elbow surgery. They did make the biggest free agent splash signing Trea Turner. He will leadoff for the Phils and have Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto and Nick Castellanos hitting behind him. The bottom half of the order is below average. The have a solid top of the rotation with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler and they added Taijuan Walker in Free Agency. Ranger Suarez will go at #4, but the 5th starter is yet to be determined. The bullpen features some closers of days gone by with Craig Kimbrel, Gregory Soto and Seranthony Dominguez. The lack of pitching depth didn’t slow the Phils last year, but even with the Turner addition I think they will need to add an impact starter along the way to compete with the Mets and Braves. Prediction 86-76
Miami Marlins
The Fish added Luis Arrraez and Jean Segura to a lineup that will get back star in the making Jazz Chisholm. The middle of the order is anchored by Garrett Cooper and Avisail Garcia which isn’t great. Jorge Soler has the biggest upside potential if he can get his power stroke in sync early. The rotation is led by 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara and Jesus Luzardo. The Fish hope Trevor Rogers can regain his 2021 form, and they also signed Johnny Cueto to eat some innings. The only real power arm in the pen is Tanner Scott. AJ Puk Could also be a factor there if Dylan Floro falters as closer. Overall however the pen is going to lose them more than a few games. Prediction 75-87
Washington Nationals
After winning only 55 games last year while trading away Juan Soto, the Nationals are in for another rough season. They do have some young talent looking to take a stride in the right direction led by C.J. Abrams and Joey Meneses. Lane Thomas proved a valuable two way breakout player last year as well. Signing Jeimer Candelario, Corey Dickerson, and Dominic Smith in free agency isn’t going to win the division, but it should lead to more wins. The rotation doesn’t have one arm with a projected ERA below 4, and only Kyle Finnegan can make that claim in the bullpen. The Nats should be better than last year, but they won’t be competing anytime soon. Prediction 62-100
NL East Free Plays
Philadelphia Phillies Under 88.5 Wins 1 Unit
Washington Nationals Over 59.5 Wins 1 Unit
I haven’t seen it yet, but I’ll likely be playing the Nationals to Give up most runs in MLB
