Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, All time tracked record in MLB shows a 1.1% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2024. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available Here which is $400 for the season.
I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.
NL East
Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals
Atlanta Braves -275/101.5
Philadelphia Phillies +325/89.5
New York Mets +625/81.5
Miami Marlins +1500/78.5
Washington Nationals +4500/65.5
Atlanta Braves
The Braves had a dream season in 2023 winning 104 games before it all came crashing down in the NLDS. The Braves will be back strong again in 2024 with the best position player and pitcher in baseball. Ronald Acuna Jr. leads the hit parade, and as long as the knee injury he is currently resting is nothing serious should again dominate. He’s hardly the only threat in the lineup however as the top six hitters are all projected for 25+ Home Runs. If newcomer Jarred Kelenic can somehow reach his former prospect potential in Atlanta this lineup becomes even more dangerous. Spencer Strider is the top rotation arm in the big leagues as he strikes out nearly a batter an inning. The rest of the rotation showcases Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez. Other than Strider they all have had some sort of injury bug, but if they’re healthy it is a top tier 1-5 rotation. The bullpen is anchored by Raisel Iglesias. Setup men A.J. Minter and Joe Jimenez are solid and it has a nice mix of righties and lefties for any situation. It will be another N.L. East crown for Atlanta in 2024, but I don’t think they repeat the regular season success of 2023. Prediction 97-65
Philadelphia Phillies
The Fightin Phils went 90-72 in 2023 and came one game away from the World Series losing to Arizona in seven games. The lineup returns mostly intact with Kyle Schwarber again scheduled to leadoff. I don’t really agree with putting a 40+ homer guy at the top to drive in nobody on his longballs, but he does boast a .347 OBP. Bryce Harper will be back in the field most days at first base, and Trea Turner still holds down SS. J.T. Realmuto may be on his last legs as a top tier catcher. On the pitching side of things they re-signed Aaron Nola to pair up with Zach Wheeler so they have a solid top of the rotation. Christopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez were solid surprises for the Phils, and they hope to get a decent year from Taijuan Walker in the #5 spot. The bullpen loses Craig Kimbrel, but still has Jose Alvarado to closeout games. My crystal ball says this team didn’t do anything to get any better and is simply a year older. Prediction 86-76
Miami Marlins
The big loss for the Marlins in the off-season was Jorge Soler moving on. As a small market club they have to try and build some things from within and the pitching staff they have developed may help them get back into the playoffs. While Sandy Alcantara is out this year with Tommy John, they still bring back Jesus Luzardo and Eury Perez at the top of the rotation. Perez should be off an innings cap this season as well. Braxton Garrett is the question mark with a fatigued shoulder to start camp. If he can get right early in the season this rotation could be special. The bullpen is better at closer than most of 2023 with Tanner Scott now firmly in the roll, but the rest of the pen is below average at best. 2023 Trade bait, Josh Bell and Jake Burger will try and replace Soler in the lineup, but the key will be a healthy Jazz Chisholm Jr. If he can put a full season together with some of the bop at the top this 84 win team from a season ago could really surprise in 2024. Prediction 84-78
New York Mets
The Mets should have been better in 2023, but injuries and Buck Showalter seemingly got in the way. With former Brewers top man David Stearns taking over in the front office I look for a quick Mets turn around in the next few seasons, but alas it will not happen in 2024. They still have a solid core in the middle of the lineup with Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. If they are out of it the first half of the year I could see Alonso getting moved. The rest of the lineup is solid if unspectactular with a large group of career underachievers like Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte. It is the rotation that will drag this team down in 2024. Three new retread starters will join Jose Quintana in the rotation in Adrian Houser, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. They would need all of them to realize full potential in order to compete. The bullpen will return 2023 injury loss Edwin Diaz to the closer role, but doesn’t feature another arm with an ERA under 4.00. Prediction 78-84
Washington Nationals
Honestly this roster overachieved in 2023 finishing with 71 wins in this division. A 16 Win increase from 2022 was much more than expected. C.J. Abrams and Lane Thomas established themselves as legitimate top of the order threats. This year they’ll bring in Joey Gallo, Eddie Rosario and Nick Senzel to try and drive them in. The rotation which is below average returns most of the same group as last year lead by Mackenzie Gore who came over in the Soto trade. If he and Josiah Gray can improve upon the free passes they could turn into aces, but I don’t see it. The bullpen is below average and will struggle again to hold leads. The Nats need to get some help from the minors, but it won’t be this year, and I doubt they can repeat the 71 wins from a year ago. Prediction 66-96
NL East Free Plays
Miami Marlins Over 78.5 Wins – 1 Unit
Lean Under Win Totals – Braves, Mets, Marlins
If you want to take a flyer for a small amount on the Marlins to win the division go ahead.
