Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, All time tracked record in MLB shows a 1.1% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2024. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available Here which is $400 for the season.
I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.
NL Central
Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals
St. Louis Cardinals +145/84.5
Chicago Cubs +175/83.5
Cincinnati Red +300/82.5
Milwaukee Brewers +625/77.5
Pittsburgh Pirates +1800/74.5
Cincinnati Reds
Maybe I am a year and a free agent pitcher early on the Reds, but I believe they have the talent to win this division. The NL Central is wide open, so why is the number on this teams win total only 82.5 after an 82 win season a year ago? Their losses in the off-season were bit players in their lineup like Joey Votto, Hunter Renfroe, Nick Senzel and Harrison Bader. Jeimer Candelario brings enough to the table to make up for those and letting the rest of their young talent play everyday is only going to make them better. The Top 5 in the lineup should be TJ Freidl, Elly De La Cruz, Matt Mclain, The Candy Man, and Spencer Steer. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is a beast at the bottom of the lineup who could lead this team in Home Runs and RBIs by the end of the season. They were hurt by Noelvi Marte getting a PED suspension for half the season, but this lineup has plenty of firepower. The pitching side is the weakness of the group with out any top tier ace. Two Pitchers do have that potential if they can stay healthy and limit the free passes. Hunter Greene is a strikeout machine, but was limited by injuries in 2023. Nick Lodolo who is a K-machine also had a short season in 2023 due to injuries. The word so far is both are pain free and if Frankie Montas bounces back at all they’ll have a solid top three in the rotation. The bullpen has three flame-throwing studs in closer Alexis Diaz, Emilio Pagan and Lucas Sims. Everything about this team screams they should be better in 2024. If they play well to start the year I think they make some mid-season moves to support the staff. They are my pick to take down the division in 2024. Prediction 86-76
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs didn’t make a lot of changes in the off-season to a team that went 83-79 in 2023. The biggest change is at manager where they poached Craig Counsell from the rival Brewers and brought him 90 miles south. Their biggest loss from a player perspective was Marcus Stroman who they replaced with international left hander Shota Imanaga. Justin Steele will anchor the rest of the rotation with aging veteran Kyle Hendricks slotting in behind those two. The back of the bullpen is strong with Adbert Alzolay and recently acquired Hector Neris. The lineup stayed relatively static with a little turnover. Michael Busch came over in a trade and will feature at DH and CI. There is plenty of pop in the rest of the lineup with Cody Bellinger re-signing and Dansby Swanson holding down the heart of it. I think this group over-achieved in 2023, but I don’t think they did enough to take another step forward. Prediction 84-78
St. Louis Cardinals
This team disappointed in 2023 to the tune of a 71-91 record. Here they are again though favored to win the division. The team did not sit idle in the off-season as they revamped most of their pitching staff. There will be four new bullpen arms trying to get the ball to Giovanny Gallegos and closer Ryan Helsey. The starters added veterans Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson into the mix. The top four in the rotation average 35.4 years of age with Stevan Matz and Miles Mikolas joining the newcomers. I project none of them to hold an ERA under 4.00. The core of the lineup is the same with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt in the middle of the order. The injury bug has already bit two key personnel with Tommy Edman still not recovered from off-season wrist surgery and Lars Nootbar out with Rib fractures. If this team is going to get back to their winning ways they will need top prospect Jordan Walker to take a step forward. I think this team is over the hill and past its prime. Injuries and rotation issues seem like they’ll be ongoing for this crew, and while I think they’ll be better than 2023, they could also end up in the cellar again. Prediction 81-81
Milwaukee Brewers
As mentioned above the biggest loss for the crew may have been manager Craig Counsell. That was until they traded away Corbin Burnes to Baltimore for Joey Ortiz and a bag of donuts. The Brewers got an upgrade at first base with Rhys Hoskins getting healthy and joining up. Christian Yelich is still a solid core player and Williams Contreras has emerged as a top catcher in MLB. The rest of the lineup is a mix of unproven youth like top prospects Jackson Churio, and Sal Frelick who graduated to the majors in 2023. If Churio proves to be the real deal from the get-go this offense could be better than 2023. The pitching staff however will not be. Brandon Woodruff re-signed with the Brewers, but will miss most of the season. Freddy Peralta is always my dark horse Cy-Young winner as he has some of the best strikeout stuff in MLB. The replacements for Burnes and Woodruff are journeyman Jacob Junis and youngster DL Hall who was also part of the Burnes trade. The bullpen took a big hit last night as it was announced closer Devin Williams will miss at least half the season with a stress fracture in his back. The Brewers offense should be better, but they are going to struggle with the back end of the rotation and protecting leads in 2024. Prediction 80-82
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are poised for another sub-.500 season this year, but I get the feeling they are close to getting back to being in contention for the first time in ten years. They have put together a bunch of trade-bait veterans who should help out until they get moved later in the year for prospects. Yasmani Grandal, Josh Fleming, Aroldis Chapman, Martin Perez, and Andrew McCutchen are all still average MLB players. The exciting part about the team is they have a healthy O’neill Cruz back in the mix, and top overall pick C/OF Henry Davis here for a full season. Mitch Keller made a step forward as a starter in 2023, but the rest of the rotation is a hot mess. David Bednar has been one of most consistent closers the last few seasons, but I’d expect him to get moved this summer. Because this division is going to beat up on each other and be very competitive I’d look for Pittsburgh to hang around at least until July. Prediction 75-87
NL East Free Plays
Cincinnati Reds Over 82.5 Wins – 1.5 Units.
Lean Brewers Over 77.5. The Williams news scares me.
If you wanna fire a small bet at your favorite team to win the division at Plus Money I’d say go for it, but I think the prices are too short and this division too wide open.
