Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/
I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.
NL CENTRAL
Betting – Odds to win Division and Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals
Los Angeles Dodgers -250/ 97.5
San Diego Padres +325/ 88.5
San Francisco Giants +500/ 84.5
Colorado Rockies +3500/ 68.5
Arizona Diamondbacks +4500/ 66.5
Los Angeles Dodgers – They Dodgers lost some key off-season pieces, but in true Dodger fashion for the last decade or so they re-tooled the roster through free agency. Gone are Max Scherzer, Kenley Jansen and Corey Seagar. They did however bring in the biggest free agent on the market in former MVP Freddie Freeman. While they are still the favorite in this division this is likely as vulnerable as they have been in years to start the season. They have the best lineup in baseball with Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freeman at the top. Follow that up with Max Muncy, Will Smith, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, and some fill-ins and there aren’t many easy outs. The pitching staff has a couple aces in Walker Buehler and Julio Urias at the top, and they brought back Clayton Kershaw, but he is a shell of his former dominance. The back end of the rotation is a question mark. The bullpen has Blake Treinen who can be dominant, but most of the rest of the group is underwhelming. I could see this team struggle in close games late. Prediction 98-64
San Diego Padres – The Padres put together a dynamic roster leading into 2021 to compete with the Dodgers and delivered one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. They went 12-34 down the stretch and missed the playoffs. That has led to a manager change as veteran Bob Melvin has been brought in to right the ship. Melvin has down much more with less than this roster showcases, so I anticipate this team to improve. That being said they were bit by the injury bug right away in Spring Training as their all world shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. went down with a wrist injury that will sideline him for at least 3 months and likely affect him all season. They still have some other boppers in the lineup with Manny Machado and the added Luke Voit. They also have a few solid table setters in Trent Grisham and Jake Cronenworth. The rotation really let them down last year as Joe Musgrove was the only one who preformed to expected levels. If Yu Darvish and Blake Snell can get their issues figured out and Mike Clevinger comes back from injury at the same level before he was hurt they will have a really dangerous 1-4 in the rotation. The bullpen has some good pieces in Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan, but roles are still up in the air, and this unit could struggle. Prediction 90-72
San Francisco Giants – The overachievers of 2021 were the Giants. I made more money betting on them than any other team in any sport over the course of the year. They lost in the NLDS in 5 games to the Dodgers ending their magical season. Now they have to replace the heart of the team as Buster Posey has retired. They also have to find an answer to losing Kevin Gausman in Free agency as he was the ace of the staff. They also have to find a way to replicate many career seasons, most of which came from veteran players. Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria and Darin Ruf will have to continue their hitting trends, and they also have to keep their aging bodies on the field. So, do I see them winning 107 games again? Absolutley not. This lineup is old, and losing Posey is big in regards to handling the pitching staff as well. The starters should still be the strength of the team with Logan Webb as the anchor. They brought in Carlos Rodon who looked like he turned the corner last year, and Alex Cobb. The bullpen should be a strength with three solid arms at the back of games with Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers and Jake McGee. Prediction 85-77
Colorado Rockies – After having a nice run for a few years and competing with LA in the division the Rockies have now had three straight losing seasons. Gone are Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story from those winning squads, but the Rockies have brought in some key players and have had winning seasons before without much of a pitching staff and a top heavy lineup. Coors Field can be a great equalizer. Kris Bryant in Coors is going to be fun, and they have some other boppers with CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon and Brandon Rodgers. Charlie Blackmon will look to bounce back after a down year at the plate. The staff is not good with German Marquez being the only above average arm there, and the bullpen improved by signing Alex Colome, but is also below average. This team shouldn’t compete for the division, but they seem to find a way most years to be better than expected. Prediction 74-88
Arizona Diamondbacks – They were awful last year as they won only 52 games. They are certainly still in rebuilding mode, but should be better than last years version. The lineup features Ketel Marte one of the best pure swings in baseball, and exciting young player Daulton Varsho. The rest of the lineup checks in below average so they won’t be outhitting other teams to victories. They have Zac Gallen in the rotation and he continues to impress. Madison Bumgarner is past his prime. The rest of the rotation is a question mark. They have some veteran pieces in the bullpen in Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy, but both of them will likely be traded by the end of July. Don’t see much from the snakes this year. Prediction 68-94
My Free plays on the NL West are as follows:
Not much value in this division for me I think Colorado can hit themselves into some victories with the lineup they have.
Colorado Rockies over 68.5 wins – 1.5 Units
Colorado Rockies to make playoffs +1000 – .25 Units.
