Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at TheOddsbreakers.com shortly. It is $400 for every MLB game all the way through the playoffs.
I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.
NL West
Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals
San Diego Padres Even/ 93.5
Los Angeles Dodgers Even/ 95.5
San Francisco Giants +750/ 81.5
Arizona Diamondbacks +3000/ 75.5
Colorado Rockies +6000/ 65.5
San Diego Padres
It’s time for a change in the West. The Padres added another piece signing Xander Bogaerts in Free Agency. They also have Fernando Tatis Jr. coming back from his injury and suspension. You may have forgotten, but he hit 42 bombs and stole 25 bags in 2021. The top of this lineup when healthy is going to be Bogaerts, Tatis, Juan Soto, and Manny Machado. That’s scary good. The bottom of the lineup is average, but features plenty of veterans who can still swing the bat and create plenty of match-up issues for opposing pitching staffs. Yu Darvish anchors the rotation for the Padres, with Joe Musgrove as a solid #2. Musgrove is coming off an injury to start the season so the Friars are hoping Blake Snell can get a little deeper into games. His stuff has been great, but plenty of walks and deep counts. Josh Hader struggled in the second half last year, but is still one of the elite bullpen arms in the bigs. The rest of the bullpen is solid with 6 guys with a sub 4 ERA. I think this team could get to the top of the division in 2023. Prediction 94-68
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers lost a third of their starting lineup from a team that won 111 games last year. Trea Turner was the biggest loss, but Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger also moved on. They were replaced with JD Martinez and David Peralta which is a downgrade. Gavin Lux was going to takeover for Turner at Shortstop, but tore his ACL this spring so Miguel Rojas will get the nod. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are still in LA however, and Will Smith has emerged as a top offensive catcher. This team scored the most runs in the bigs last year and it wasn’t close. That won’t happen in 2023. Clayton Kershaw still has ace stuff, but his health is always a question. The Dodgers will need more from him with Walker Buehler being sidelined with Tommy John Surgery. Julio Urias is a solid #2. Dustin May is intriguing coming back from injury as he could be an ace in the making. Tony Gonsolin was great last year, but pitched way above his metrics and will start the year injured. The bullpen is solid, but they do not have an established closer on the roster with Kenley Jansen moving onto Boston. Evan Phillps and Brusdar Graterol will likely start the season closing games. LA lost a lot of talent and are one injury away from really having to fight for a playoff spot. Prediction 92-70
San Francisco Giants
The Giants were a .500 team in 2022. They lost Carlos Rodon in free agency to the Yankees, but most of the rest of this team returns intact and the Giants have a knack for reviving pitchers careers and I think they find a way to do that with Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling. Those two will slot in the rotation behind Logan Webb, Alex Cobb and Alex Wood. That gives the Giants 5 solid starters to eat plenty of innings in a great pitchers park. The bullpen has Camilio Doval and Taylor Rogers to shut the door in the late innings. What the Giants will need to find a way to do is put runs on the board. The only player that can steal bases in the top 9 is Thairo Estrada. Joc Pederson and recently singed Michael Conforto will be looked for to be the guys driving in the runs. Free Agent Mitch Haniger will join that duo if he can find a way to get healthy. Joey Bart is not the second coming of Buster Posey like the Giants were hoping, but Blake Sabol looks to be a solid option if needed. I think this team can take a step forward if healthy. Prediction 86-76
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Snakes graduated a pair of exciting homegrown first round selections last year in speedster Jake McCarthy and all around star in the making Corbin Carroll. While they traded away Daulton Varsho, they got Gabriel Moreno in return to work behind the dish as well as Lourdes Gurriel. Christian Walker is a solid cleanup hitter who should ht around 30 Long balls. The rotation features ace Zac Gallen who is one of the top run limiters in baseball. Merrill Kelly is in the #2 slot, Madison Bumgarner and Zach Davies are below average options behind them. There is some help coming as a few solid minor league options Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry will be up sooner rather than later. With Mark Melancon injured and also ineffective my money is on Scott McGough or Kevin Ginkel to close games out. The DBacks have 5 solid options at the back end. This team should be better than last year. Prediction 77-85
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies who only a few years ago were one of the most exciting shows in baseball have turned into a laughing stock. Especially the pitching staff. It’s hard to get pitchers to want to come to Denver, but they really aren’t even trying. German Marquez is the leader of the staff, but his ERA has been over 4.5. Kyle Freeland, Jose Urena, Austin Gomber and Connor Seabold are all far below MLB average as pitchers. The bullpen is intriguing in that it has Dinelson Lamet who if healthy could be a future closer or maybe even work his way into the rotation. Daniel Bard plunked Jose Altuve in the WBC and he has a history of being a head case and doesn’t know where the ball is going when he’s struggling. He will close if he can find the plate. The lineup will win them some games. They just signed Jurickson Profar who will likely lead off. Kris Bryant had a wasted year in 2022 with multiple injured list visits. If he’s healthy he will pair with CJ Cron to lead the offense. Ezequiel Tovar is an interesting power speed combo prospect who will get the nod at shortstop. The Rockies are in rebuild mode and not coming out of it anytime soon. Prediction 67-95
NL West Free Plays
Like I said, I think there is a changing of the guard here, but the Dodgers are still formidable. With the win totals favoring LA and the division futures being even, I don’t think there is a value at even money on the Padres to win the division. Instead we will fade LA on the wins total.
Los Angeles Dodgers Under 95.5 Wins 1.5 Units
San Francisco Giants Over 81 Wins 1.5 Units
San Francisco Giants to make playoffs +180 .5 Units
