Baseball season has arrived. The spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Traditionally baseball is my best sport to handicap, but we did have a losing season in 2022. All time tracked record in MLB still shows a 1.8% ROI and we’ll be getting back to our winning ways in 2023. You’ll be able to find my MLB betting package available here at TheOddsbreakers.com shortly. It is $400 for every MLB game all the way through the playoffs.
I’ll finish up the season preview with a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. We’ll throw in some season long props as well and MVP, CY and ROY predictions.
AL West
Betting Odds to Win Division and Season Over/Under Win Totals
Houston Astros -225/ 96.5 (Offline currently due to Altuve Injury)
Seattle Mariners +285/ 87.5
Los Angeles Angels +725/ 81.5
Texas Rangers +725/ 82.5
Oakland Athletics +7500/ 59.5
Houston Astros
The Astros won their second World Series title in 2022, but the gap has been closing in this division as they look to repeat. The Astros lose Justin Verlander to Free agency, but they have all homegrown talent stocking the rotation to a solid level. Framber Valdez emerges as the ace of the staff with Christian Javier, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy slotting in behind him. Lance McCullers is hurt currently so prospect Hunter Brown may start the year as the #5. The bullpen is a huge strength for this team with Ryan Pressley shutting the door and Rafael Montero and Hector Neris getting him the ball. The lineup should be improved with the addition of Jose Abreu in the off season. Jeremy Pena, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman will be atop the order with Yordan Alvarez hitting cleanup. Alvarez can’t seem to avoid the injury bug and has been sidelined once this spring already. The rest of the lineup is sub-par. Look for the Astros to surely take a step back in victories in 2023. Prediction 89-73
Seattle Mariners
I think the Mariners can compete this year with the Astros as they should come back to the M’s. They lost Mitch Haniger to the Giants and Adam Frazier to the Orioles, and they sent Jesse Winker to the Brewers, but overall I think this lineup is in better shape than 2022. With superstar Julio Rodriguez anchoring the lineup. They’ve added Teoscar Hernandez for some protection. Mix in Kolten Wong joining from Milwaukee and it is definitely upgraded. Cal Raleigh is a top offensive option at catcher. The biggest question mark is if Jarred Kelenic can finally transfer his AAA success to the big leagues. He has homered at both levels hitting 21 Big league Homers the last two seasons and 27 at AAA. The issue is his strikeout percent which sits over 30% in MLB vs being under 20% in AAA. Because of that his average is .294 at AAA and only .178 in MLB. If he gets it together lookout. The Staff is anchord by Luis Castillo who came over at the deadline last year. He is followed by Robbie Ray and two 1st Round homegrown arms in George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. The Bullpen features Paul Sewald and Andres Munoz, but is solid top to bottom. Look for them to finish very similar to last year, but maybe 3-4 wins better if Kelenic can figure it out. Prediction 88-74
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are going to score runs in 2023. They added Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury this off season which gives them seven players that should hit for 20 Home Runs to start off their lineup. Shohei Ohtani is a once in a lifetime talent as a staff ace and 30 Home Run talent. Mike Trout is getting older, he’ll turn 32 this year. The talent is still there, but lately his health hasn’t been. Trout has averaged just 69 games per season since 2020 (Covid included) The rotation will be a 6 man rotation when they go six days in a row. They added Tyler Anderson who reinvented himself last year across town. Patrick Sandoval is a solid number three, but the bottom of the rotation is not going to win them many games. In fact there was a stretch last year where the Angels went four times through the 6 man rotation without winning a game started by anyone but Ohtani. The bullpen is a quagmire with Carlos Estevez and Jimmy Herget liekly to close out games. The Angels are better. If they stay healthy they can compete. Prediction 86-76
Texas Rangers
The great question mark….Jacob Degrom. The Rangers paid 185 Million for 5 years to get him from the Mets. The best pitcher of the last five years has only managed to throw a combined 224.1 innings in the last 3 years. Will he get healthy in Texas? I wouldn’t bet on it. They also signed Free agent pitchers Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi who join Martin Perez and Jon Gray in the rotation. Jose Leclerc can be a solid closer if healthy. The lineup is solid at the top with Marcus Semien, Corey Seagar, Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia, but the bottom of the lineup is a bunch of retreads and unspectacular prospects. They will need to find some production in order to compete, but they should improve vs 2022 just based on the rotation upgrades. Prediction 81-81
Oakland Athletics
The A’s stink. That being said 59.5 means 102 losses is their starting point? I can’t see that. Ownership likely wants to keep this team in rebuild mode until they figure out their stadium situation either in Oakland or Las Vegas. They won 60 games last year, and while not greatly improved they shouldn’t be worse. They added trade bait Jesus Aguilar and Jace Peterson to the lineup. Ramon Laureano and Seth Brown provide some pop in the lineup. The rotation is made up of a few guys you’ve never heard of James Kaprielan and JP Sears. It’s awful. The bullpen is solid especially in the back end with Trevor May, Zack Jackson and Dany Jimenez. It is actually a better bullpen than a few contenders. I think they win a few more games than last year. Prediction 67-95
AL West Free Plays
This division got a lot better. There’s some value here and I’m dutching up the Mariners and Angels for a unit to knock the Astros off their perch.
Houston Astros Under 96.5 1 Unit
Los Angeles Angels Over 81.5 1 Unit
Oakland A’s Over 59.5 1 Unit
Los Angeles Angels to Win Division +725 .25 Units
Seattle Mariners to win Division +285 .75 Units
